For weeks, the debate around SpaceX's (SPCX) upcoming IPO has centered on a simple question: How can a company worth nearly $2 trillion be losing so much money?
The skepticism wasn't difficult to understand. According to its SEC filing, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue during 2025 yet reported an operating loss of roughly $2.6 billion after absorbing xAI and pouring billions into AI infrastructure. Critics argued investors were being asked to pay a valuation usually reserved for the largest and most profitable businesses on Earth. Some analysts even suggested the company's fair value was less than half its proposed $1.75 trillion IPO valuation.
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But a newly amended SEC filing may have changed the conversation.
SpaceX Says It's an AI Company
One of the most surprising disclosures in SpaceX's S-1 filing wasn't financial at all.
Rather than presenting itself primarily as a launch services company or satellite operator, SpaceX increasingly described itself as an AI services and infrastructure company. The filing devoted enormous attention to AI markets and future AI opportunities, a move many observers initially dismissed as an attempt to capitalize on the enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence.
Granted, investors have seen plenty of companies sprinkle "AI" into presentations in hopes of boosting valuations.
SpaceX looked different because it was spending real money. The company has invested tens of billions of dollars building AI infrastructure and data-center capacity, a strategy that contributed to its recent losses. The question was whether those investments would ever generate returns.
Now investors have an answer.
The Google Deal Changes Everything
SpaceX disclosed that it signed a multiyear cloud-services agreement with Alphabet's (GOOG) (GOOGL) Google under which the tech giant will pay approximately $920 million per month for AI compute capacity from October 2026 through June 2029. The agreement provides Google access to roughly 110,000 Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs and related infrastructure. That works out to more than $11 billion annually.
By itself, that would be transformative, but Google isn't the only customer. SpaceX previously disclosed a separate AI infrastructure agreement with Anthropic. Combined, the Google and Anthropic contracts are expected to generate approximately $26 billion in annual revenue and more than $70 billion over their contractual lives if completed as planned.
Let's put that into perspective. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion of total company revenue in 2025. These two AI contracts alone represent revenue greater than the entire company produced last year.
Perhaps even more telling is who signed the deal. Google is one of the world's largest data center operators and spends hundreds of billions of dollars building AI infrastructure. Yet demand for its Gemini AI platform has apparently grown so rapidly that it is renting capacity from SpaceX instead.
That is not the behavior of a customer buying excess server space. It is the behavior of a customer facing a shortage.
Key Takeaway
The bear case against SpaceX was straightforward: investors were paying nearly $2 trillion for a company with less than $20 billion in annual revenue and billions in losses. The Google agreement doesn't eliminate those concerns, but it changes the numbers dramatically.
When a company can point to contracts worth roughly $26 billion annually from two of the biggest names in artificial intelligence, those AI investments stop looking like speculative spending and start looking like productive assets.
That doesn't guarantee the IPO is cheap. Valuation still matters. But the latest SEC filing suggests SpaceX may not be a rocket company receiving an AI premium. It may be an AI infrastructure company that happens to launch rockets. And regardless of how you look at it, that distinction could make a $1.75 trillion valuation appear far less ambitious than it did a week ago.
On the date of publication, Rich Duprey did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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