The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.14%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.21%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.96%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.18%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -1.02%.
Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 1-week high and the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 1-week low. The weakness in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks is dragging the overall market lower today. Chipmakers are sliding today on negative carryover from a -6% plunge in South Korea’s Kospi Index, which was weighed down by sharp losses in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics.
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While most chipmaking-related stocks are trading lower, technology laggards such as software stocks are climbing as investors rotate into underperforming sectors. Also, today’s +4% jump in UnitedHealth Group and +2% rally in Merck & Co are keeping the Dow Jones Industrial Average in positive territory.
Today’s US economic reports were generally positive for the economy but hawkish on Fed policy, pushing bond yields higher; the 10-year T-note yield is up by +3 bp to 4.58%.
US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -8,000 to a 10-week low of 208,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 217,000.
US Jun retail sales rose +0.2% m/m, right on expectations. However, Jun retail sales ex-autos fell -0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.1% m/m.
The US Jul Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +31.1 to a 4.5-year high of 41.4, stronger than expectations of 12.5.
US Jun pending home sales fell -5.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and the steepest decline in 6 months.
The US Jul NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -2 to 34, weaker than expectations of no change at 35.
WTI crude oil prices (CLQ26) are up nearly +1% today after the US launched fresh airstrikes on Iran and struck a sanctioned Iranian oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. Iran responded by firing upon American bases in Kuwait and Jordan, with the Jordanian government saying it intercepted eight missiles. President Trump pledged to intensify the bombardment until Iran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to open the waterway.
The Wall Street Journal reported today that President Trump is leaning toward expanding military operations and discussed the seizure of Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal. According to RBC Capital Markets LLC, a seven-day moving average of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has slumped to 3.9 million bpd from 8.5 million bpd before the collapse of the ceasefire.
The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which began this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1’s blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.
The markets are discounting a 12% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 1-week low and is down -0.29%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 3.5-month low and closed down -1.85%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -2.79%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -9 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +3.8 bp to 4.586%. Stronger-than-expected US economic reports today are weighing on T-note prices after weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 10-week low and the Jul Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose more than expected to a 4.5-year high. T-notes are also under pressure from higher crude oil prices, which have raised inflation expectations.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 1.75-month high of 3.164% and is up +2.3 bp to 3.145%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +4.2 bp to 4.980%.
UK May monthly GDP rose +0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of no change m/m.
UK May manufacturing production unexpectedly rose +0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.2% m/m decline.
Swaps are discounting a 7% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are sliding today, weighing on the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is down more than -2%. Sandisk (SNDK) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is down more than -7%. Also, Marvel Technology (MRVL) is down more than -6%, and Western Digital (WDC) is down more than -5%. In addition, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is down more than -4%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Intel (INTC), Micron Technology (MU), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -3%.
Mining stocks are falling today, along with gold, silver, and copper prices, which are sharply lower. Coeur Mining (CDE) and Hecla Mining (HL) are down more than -5%, and Freeport McMoran (FCX), Newmont Corp (NEM),Anglogold Ashanti (AU), and Barrick Mining (B) are down more than -3%. Also, Southern Copper (SCCO) is down more than 1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are sliding today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) moving lower. Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are down more than -6%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) is down more than -5%. Also, Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is down more than -4%, Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -2%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) is down more than -1%.
JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) is up more than +5% to lead trucking companies higher after reporting Q2 revenue of $3.50 billion, better than the consensus of $3.25 billion. Also, ArcBest (ARCB) is up more than +5%, and Saia Inc (SAIA), XPO Inc (XPO), FedEx Freight Holding (FDXF), Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), and Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN) are up more than +4%. In addition, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) and CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) are up more than +3%, and United Parcel Service (UPS) is up more than +2%.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is down more than -14% after announcing its intent to offer $1.0 billion of convertible senior notes due 2034 in a private offering.
GE Aerospace (GE) is down more than -4% despite the company raising its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year after TD Cowen said the raise “may not be good enough.”
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is down more than -1% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $9 to $11, the midpoint below the consensus of $10.51.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $5.45 to $5.60 from a previous forecast of $5.38 to $5.58, the midpoint above the consensus of $5.48.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $6.38, well above the consensus of $4.89, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $19.50 to $20.00 from a previous estimate of above $18.25.
Merck & Co (MRK) is up more than +3% after the USDA approved the company’s Lipfendra medication pill to reduce LDL cholesterol.
AeroVironment (AVAV) is up more than +3% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $210.
Rocket Cos (RKT) is up more than +1% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $19.
Earnings Reports(7/16/2026)
Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Alcoa Corp (AA), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG), Commerce Bancshares Inc/MO (CBSH), FNB Corp/PA (FNB), General Electric Co (GE), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), Netflix Inc (NFLX), Prologis Inc (PLD), State Street Corp (STT), UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), US Bancorp (USB).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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