Bolingbrook, Illinois-based Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S. and a leading destination for cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, haircare, wellness products, and salon services. With a market cap of $22.4 billion, the company transformed beauty retail by bringing prestige, mass-market, and professional salon products under one roof, catering to beauty enthusiasts across a wide range of price points.
ULTA has largely missed out on the broader market’s strong run over the past year. ULTA has gained 1.8% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 18.3%. The divergence has widened in 2026, with ULTA down 11% year to date even as the SPX has climbed 11.8%.
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The picture isn’t much better against its retail peers. The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has gained about 4.2% over the past year and in 2026, outperforming the stock.
www.barchart.com ULTA’s lackluster performance over the past year reflects a market that has become harder to impress. Beauty demand has remained resilient, but rising investment costs, tougher competition, and margin concerns have kept investors on edge. After the stock’s strong run in 2025, expectations were elevated, and solid results have not always been enough to satisfy a market looking for stronger earnings growth.
However, on Aug. 18, Ulta Beauty shares jumped 5.5% after the company appointed Brieane Olson to its board of directors, effective Aug. 31. With more than 20 years of specialty retail experience, Olson is expected to bring expertise in brand building, merchandising, and omnichannel strategy, supporting Ulta’s “Ulta Beauty Unleashed” growth plan.
For fiscal 2026, ending in January 2027, analysts expect Ulta Beauty to keep its earnings momentum going, with diluted EPS projected to rise 12.2% year over year to $28.76. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.
Among the 25 analysts covering ULTA stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 17 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” six “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”
www.barchart.com In June, UBS analyst Michael Lasser maintained his “Buy” rating on Ulta Beauty but lowered his price target to $735 from $810, reflecting a more tempered outlook while remaining bullish on the stock’s longer-term potential.
The mean price target of $623.52 represents a 15.7% premium to ULTA’s current price levels.
On the date of publication, Kritika Sarmah did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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