The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down by -0.32% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.57%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are down -0.31%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are down -0.53%.
Stock indexes are retreating today as a surge in crude oil prices pushes inflation risks and bond yields higher and dampens market sentiment. WTI crude oil is up more than +4% today after a report said the US could escalate the war in Iran before next month's midterm elections.
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Today’s US economic news showed strength in the labor market that is supportive for stocks after weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -2,000 to a 2.5-month low of 197,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 200,000.
Hawkish comments today from Fed Governor Christopher Waller weighed on stocks and bonds when he said, "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional rate hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal."
Earnings optimism is a bullish factor for stock prices. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 profits are expected to climb by +25% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. Q3 earnings season begins next week when US money center banks report.
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) are up more than +4% today on signs of possible escalation of the US-Iran conflict after a report from the Atlantic said the White House asked the Pentagon to draw up strike options against Iran that could be executed before the midterm elections. Also, due to Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the cost to ship oil out of the Middle East is soaring as freight rates to ship oil from the Middle East to China jumped to $1.4 million a day, the most on record. In addition, crude oil has support as US crude producers shut in more than 510,000 bpd of crude output in response to Hurricane Isaias forming in the US Gulf.
Markets are discounting a 22% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled to a 3.75-month low and is down -0.49%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 2-month low and closed down -0.79%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -1.42%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down by -4 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.1 bp to 5.294%. T-notes are under pressure today after a +4% surge in WTI crude oil prices raised inflation expectations. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 3.5-week high of 2.393% today. Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller are also weighing on T-notes, as he said the Fed needs additional rate hikes to cool inflation. In addition, today’s unexpected decline in US weekly jobless claims to a 2.5-month low points to a strong labor market, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. Finally, supply pressures are negative for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $22 billion of 30-year T-bonds later today.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.0 bp to 3.485%. The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 19-year high of 5.521% and is up +0.6 bp to 5.448%.
The summary of the September 9-10 ECB meeting showed officials warning that further action on inflation is needed, while also assessing that any interest rate increase would still not restrict growth.
The German Economy Ministry raised its 2026 German GDP forecast to 1.3% from a previous estimate of 0.5%.
German trade news was weaker than expected after German Aug exports unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of+0.9% m/m and the biggest decline in 9 months. Aug imports rose +0.9% m/M, weaker than expectations of +2.8% m/m.
Markets are discounting a 12% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI stocks are under pressure today, weighing on the broader market. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Intel (INTC), Lam Research (LRCX), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO), Microchip Technology (MCHP) Sandisk (SNDK), and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are down more than -2%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are sliding today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -1% at a 2.5-week low. Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down more than -5%, and Iren Ltd (IREN) and Bullish (BLSH) are down more than -4%. Also, Strategy (MSTR), BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), MARA Holdings (MARA), Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), and Robinhood Markets (HOOD) are down more than -3%. In addition, Coinbase Global (COIN) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) are down or than -2%.
Energy producers and service providers are climbing today, with WTI crude oil up more than +4%. APA Corp (APA) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are up more than +3%, and Chevron (CVX) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials. Also, ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), Diamondback Energy (FANG), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), Halliburton (HAL), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +2%. In addition, Baker Hughes (BKR), Phillips 66 (PSX), and SLB Ltd (SLB) are up more than +1%.
Universal Display (OLED) is down more than -6% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $71.
Nova Ltd (NVMI) is down more than -5% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Levi Strauss & Co (LEVI) is down more than -3% after reporting Q3 net revenue of $1.61 billion, below the consensus of $1.62 billion.
NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) is down more than -3% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Haemonetics (HAE) is up more than +16% after CSL Plasma expanded its relationship with the company and said it will complete the rollout of Haemonetics’ latest generation plasmapheresis platform across its US plasma centers by the end of 2027.
Wolfspeed (WOLF) is up more than +6% after the US Department of Defense announced a $1.5 billion conditional loan commitment to the company.
Accenture Plc (ACN) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after forming the Accenture Dell Business Group with Dell Technologies, designed to help organizations scale AI and modernize infrastructure.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $230.
PepsiCo (PEP) is up more than +1% after reporting Q3 operating profit of $4.26 billion, better than the consensus of $4.19 billion.
Earnings Reports (10/8/2026)
AngioDynamics Inc (ANGO), Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE), Novagold Resources Inc (NG), Oil-Dri Corp of America (ODC), Park Aerospace Corp (PKE), PepsiCo Inc (PEP), Rackspace Technology Inc (RXT).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.