Grant Cardone, the real estate investor whose firm says it manages more than 14,850 apartment units, told Newsmax on Sept. 30 that the housing market is about to tighten from the supply side: "housing prices in this country are not coming down because of interest rates. What's going to happen is new building, new construction is going to stop ... completely stop to halt. All new supply will stop, which means over the next 18 to 24 months, rents are going to start exploding again in this country."
It is the second time he has set a date for a rent explosion. In 2024, Cardone posted on X the day before that a 20.8% decline in apartment starts would cause rents to "explode" by 2026, after a temporary dip in 2025.
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On the government measure, it hasn't happened. The Bureau of Labor Statistics index for rent of primary residence rose 2.8% in the 12 months to August 2026, the latest month available, and 2.9% over calendar 2025. From April 2024, when Cardone made the call, to August 2026, the index is up about 7.8%. Those are steady increases. It's not an explosion, and on this measure, 2025 didn't dip.
On the private measure, it has gone the other way. Apartment List put the national median rent at $1,388 in September 2026, down 0.4% from a year earlier and 0.1% month over month, the first monthly decline since January. Its vacancy index stood at 7%, off a 7.3% peak in February. The firm dates the run of annual declines back to 2022, and says 2026 could be the first full year of positive rent growth since then if the current trajectory holds. So the 2024 call scores as a partial hit on 2025, which was soft on the private index and not on the government one, and a miss so far on 2026.
The mechanism Cardone describes this time is a construction halt, and the data show a slowdown rather than a stop. Census Bureau figures for August 2026 put starts of buildings with five or more units at 344,000 annually, down from 444,000 in July and 407,000 in August 2025, a 15% drop in a volatile series. Permits for the same buildings ran at 467,000, up from 427,000 a year earlier. Fewer shovels in the ground, more permits in hand. Public builders such as D.R. Horton (DHI) report their own starts every quarter, and a halt of the kind he describes would show up there first.
Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.40% in the week of Oct. 8, 2026, up from 6.30% a year earlier. He argues that high rates choke off new supply before they cool demand, so the relief buyers expect never arrives. A rate a full point above last year's makes that a live test over exactly the window he named.
Readers can weigh the source. Cardone Capital's website lists more than 14,850 units under management, 20,020 investors and $5.4 billion in total assets under management; a landlord forecasting higher rents is forecasting his own revenue. He is also a familiar name to Barchart readers. Barchart has previously reported on his advice that the middle class should quit saving money and quit buying homes, and on the $65 million mansion he said he half-lost in the January 2025 California wildfires.
Public landlords are the other place an explosion would register. Single-family rental owners such as Invitation Homes (INVH) report blended rent growth every quarter, and readers can check the forecast against a landlord's actual leases as the window runs.
The new window runs to roughly mid-2028. Barchart can then check it against the same two series: the BLS rent index and the Apartment List median. For now, the record reads: one forecast of a 2026 explosion, a 2026 in which government rents rose about 3% and private-index rents fell slightly, and a new date.
On the date of publication, Caleb Naysmith did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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