AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is heading into a closely watched earnings event, with the satellite communications company scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 9 after the market closes. That gives investors an opportunity to assess the company's progress toward commercializing its space-based cellular broadband network.
Investors will likely focus on more than just the headline numbers. Wall Street expects AST SpaceMobile to report Q3 revenue of around $46 million and a loss of about $0.41 per share, while the company’s expanding BlueBird satellite constellation, mobile-network-operator partnerships, government contracts, and progress toward initial service commercialization could be more important for ASTS stock’s longer-term outlook.
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With shares having faced significant pressure over the past year, the Nov. 9 update could be a crucial test of whether the company is moving closer to turning its ambitious satellite-to-smartphone vision into a commercially scalable business.
About AST SpaceMobile Stock
Based in Midland, Texas, AST SpaceMobile is a space technology company developing a space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly with everyday smartphones, enabling 4G and 5G connectivity in areas outside traditional terrestrial mobile coverage. The company is building its BlueBird satellite constellation and works with mobile network operators to extend wireless coverage globally, while also pursuing commercial and government applications. AST SpaceMobile has a has a market capitalization of approximately $12.5 billion.
ASTS stock has been under significant selling pressure, with shares down 50% over the past year and 55% year-to-date (YTD). The weakness has accelerated recently, with ASTS stock falling roughly 21% over the past five trading sessions, including a 15% plunge on Nov. 5.
The recent decline reflects growing investor concerns about AST SpaceMobile’s execution and the increasingly competitive direct-to-device satellite market. In particular, SpaceX's (SPCX) push to expand Starlink’s mobile capabilities and its efforts to acquire additional low-band spectrum have raised concerns that Starlink could become a more formidable competitor to the company.
Investors are also weighing AST SpaceMobile’s substantial capital requirements, launch-related risks, and continued cash burn as it works to expand its BlueBird satellite constellation. AST SpaceMobile has faced several earnings misses, including a larger-than-expected loss in Q2, further increasing scrutiny ahead of its Nov. 9 earnings report.
The sharp five-day decline also suggests that investors are reducing exposure ahead of the earnings event. With the stock now trading about 76% below its 52-week high, the Nov. 9 results and management’s commentary could be particularly important in determining whether the recent selloff stabilizes or continues.
ASTS stock currently trades at 165.7 times sales, which is a premium to industry peers.
www.barchart.com Q2 Results Showed Strong Revenue Growth But Rising Costs
AST SpaceMobile reported its Q2 2026 results on Aug. 10. Revenue jumped to $31.5 million from $1.2 million in Q2 2025. Product revenue increased to $24.4 million from just $50,000 a year ago, while services revenue rose to $7.1 million from $1.1 million. The company said quarterly revenue was driven primarily by gateway deliveries and milestones under U.S. government contracts.
The cost structure, however, remained a major concern. Total operating expenses surged to $329.1 million from $74 million a year earlier, an increase of roughly 345%. Engineering services costs rose to $87.3 million from $28.6 million, general and administrative expenses increased to $63.9 million from $27.2 million, and research and development costs climbed to $7.8 million from $6.4 million. Depreciation and amortization also increased to $20.7 million from $11.7 million.
Importantly, Q2 included a $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversion, which had no comparable expense in the year-ago quarter and materially inflated reported operating costs. On an adjusted basis, operating expenses were $119.1 million.
Consequently, AST SpaceMobile’s net loss attributable to common stockholders widened year-over-year (YOY) to $230.9 million, or $0.77 per share, from $99.4 million, or $0.41 per share. The wider loss reflects the company’s heavy investment phase and higher operating costs.
Cash usage also increased as AST SpaceMobile moved aggressively to build its satellite constellation. For the first six months of 2026, operating cash outflow was $145.2 million, compared with $72 million a year ago. Capital expenditures and other investing activity consumed $979.7 million versus $430.6 million a year earlier, largely reflecting higher spending on BlueBird satellite materials, launch-related payments, spectrum, and other infrastructure. Nevertheless, the company ended June with approximately $2.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash.
From an operational perspective, Q2 provided several important positives. AST SpaceMobile had 13 spacecraft in orbit following the BlueBird 11, 12, and 13 launches, with BlueBird 14, 15, and 16 nearing shipment and satellites 17 through 46 in various stages of production. Additionally, the company has signed partnerships with more than 60 mobile network operators covering more than 3 billion subscribers, while its revenue backlog increased to approximately $1.3 billion as of Q2. The company also received more than $125 million in aggregate U.S. government awards and is preparing for beta service in 2026.
Meanwhile, for full-year 2026, management reaffirmed its revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, supported by additional U.S. government contract awards. In addition, analysts forecast a loss per share of around $1.91 for fiscal 2026, a 43% YOY deterioration, then a 37% YOY improvement to a loss of $1.21 in fiscal 2027. For Q3, analysts estimate a loss per share of $0.41, which would mark a 9% YOY improvement.
What Do Analysts Expect for AST SpaceMobile Stock?
Last month, Scotiabank upgraded ASTS stock from “Sector Perform” to “Sector Outperform” and raised the price target to $55.70 from $50.80, despite a steep selloff in shares. Analysts view the selloff as having made the stock’s valuation more attractive.
On the other hand, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter downgraded AST SpaceMobile to “Neutral” from “Overweight” and slashed his price target to $54 from $98. Piper Sandler cited lower confidence in the pace of the company's satellite launches and growing competitive risks from SpaceX.
Overall, ASTS SpaceMobile stock has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. Of the 15 analysts covering the stock, six advise a “Strong Buy,” eight analysts have a “Hold” rating, and one analyst recommends a “Strong Sell.” The average price target of $77.82 indicates potential upside of 141% from here, while the Street-high target price of $115 suggests the stock could rally as much as 256%.
www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Subhasree Kar did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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