Equinor ASA EQNR presents an updated strategy focused on delivering higher production, stronger cash flows and enhanced shareholder returns through 2030. Equinor plans to increase total production to 2.3 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day (MMBoe/d) by 2030, driven by growth on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS), and a 30% increase in international oil and gas output. EQNR also expects power generation to exceed 20 terawatt-hours by 2030, supported by projects under execution.
The Norwegian integrated giant is balancing disciplined spending with targeted investments and has outlined an $11-$13 billion capital expenditure (capex) plan for 2027. Equinor will direct roughly 60% of these funds to the NCS, 30% to international oil and gas projects and 10% to power. Management expects cash flow from operations (CFFO), after tax to increase 30% between 2025 and 2030, and forecasts more than $40 billion of free cash flow after capex and lease payments during 2026-2030.
Equinor's NCS portfolio remains a key value driver, supported by low-cost subsea developments with break-even prices below $35 per barrel and payback periods of less than 2.5 years. EQNR has upgraded its NCS production forecast by 100,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day (Boe/d), with targets set at 1.35 MMBoe/d for 2030 and 1.3 MMBoe/d for 2035.
The Norwegian integrated giant is also expanding its international portfolio in key basins such as the United States, Brazil, Angola, the U.K. and Canada. International production is expected to reach 950,000 Boe/d by 2030, generating $20 billion in free cash flow after capital spending and lease payments over the next five years. EQNR expects CFFO to increase 80% to $9 billion in 2030, while trading and market optimization earnings are projected to rise 25% to $500 million per quarter through increased deployment of digital tools and artificial intelligence.
Equinor is expected to strengthen its shareholder return framework by doubling its 2026 share buyback program to $3 billion and introducing the annual buyback guidance of $2-$4 billion from 2027 onward. EQNR aims increasing its quarterly cash dividend per share by more than 5% per year. Combined with a targeted return on average capital employed above 15%, these initiatives reinforce Equinor's commitment to long-term value creation and capital returns.
Equinor currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the energy sector that have a presence in the upstream operations are W&T Offshore, Inc. WTI, YPF Sociedad Anónima YPF and Ecopetrol S.A. EC.
As W&T Offshore, YPF and Ecopetrol have upstream presence like Equinor, their business models are highly sensitive to oil and gas price fluctuations. WTI currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), and YPF and EC sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
W&T Offshore leverages a diverse portfolio of offshore assets in the Gulf of America to produce oil and natural gas. Holding approximately 605,000 acres, WTI maintains substantial 1P and 2P reserves, supporting a production lifespan of nearly 20 years.
YPF is an integrated energy company that leverages its strong foothold in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta formation to drive production growth. Increased field activity in the coming quarters is expected to boost YPF's oil and gas volumes in the second half of 2026.
Operating across the hydrocarbon value chain, Ecopetrol serves as Colombia’s leading integrated energy company. EC anticipates achieving production of 730,000-740,000 Boe/d in 2026, and plans to maintain this output between 700,000 and 750,000 Boe/d through 2040.
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W&T Offshore, Inc. (WTI): Free Stock Analysis Report
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC): Free Stock Analysis Report
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF): Free Stock Analysis Report
Equinor ASA (EQNR): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).