M&T Bank Corporation MTB is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 16, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have registered year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s results were supported by higher net interest income (NII) and non-interest income, along with loan growth. However, higher expenses acted as a headwind.
The company has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.95%.
M&T Bank Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
M&T Bank Corporation price-eps-surprise | M&T Bank Corporation Quote
Factors to Influence M&T Bank’s Q3 Results
Loans & NII: Following solid lending activity in the first half of 2026, loan growth momentum likely moderated in the to-be-reported quarter. Per the Fed’s latest data, commercial and industrial loan demand remained healthy in the third quarter, while consumer and real estate lending stayed steady. This is likely to have supported M&T Bank’s lending activity and growth in average interest-earning assets in the to-be-reported period.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $197.2 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 3.3%.
In September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, citing persistently elevated inflation. As interest rates remained unchanged for most of the quarter, the recent hike is less likely to have a significant impact on MTB’s NII and margin in the third quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $1.81 billion, indicating an increase of 2.5% from the year-ago reported number.
Fee Income: MTB’s average total deposits are expected to have declined in the third quarter of 2026. This is expected to have adversely impacted revenues from service charges on deposit accounts.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $108.8 million, indicating a 22.8% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The third quarter was challenging for the mortgage banking business as mortgage rates hovered around 7% and affordability was low. Both origination volume and refinance activity faced persistent headwinds from inventory constraints and a higher-for-longer rate regime. As a result, M&T Bank's mortgage banking revenues are likely to have witnessed a decline in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $145 million, indicating a 1.4% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.
The consensus estimate for brokerage services income of $42 million implies a 3% increase from that reported in the third quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust income of $190.3 million suggests a 23.5% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $714.5 million, indicating a decline of 4.9% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.
Expenses: Despite ongoing cost-control initiatives, the company’s expenses are expected to have been elevated in the third quarter of 2026, reflecting continued investments in strengthening its franchise.
Asset quality: After setting aside a decent amount for potential loan losses in the first half of 2026, M&T Bank is likely to have increased reserve building in the to-be-reported quarter, as the recent Fed rate hike and expectations of another hike later this year could weigh on borrowers’ repayment capacity.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for MTB
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for M&T Bank this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank is +0.73%.
Zacks Rank: M&T Bank currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB’s third-quarter earnings has been revised downward to $4.98 per share over the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 2.3% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.54 billion, implying a rise of 1% from the year-ago reported level.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 15. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.80% at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for PNC Financial have been revised lower to $4.97 over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares PB is +0.22% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PB’s quarterly earnings has been revised lower to $1.63 per share.
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M&T Bank Corporation (MTB): Free Stock Analysis Report
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc (PNC): Free Stock Analysis Report
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).