Archer Daniels Midland Company ADM is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3, before market open. The company is likely to report growth in its top and bottom lines when it posts the quarterly results.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ADM’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.63 per share, which indicates growth of 77.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark has increased 1.9% in the past seven days. For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $22.7 billion, implying 11.30% year-over-year growth.
Archer Daniels Midland Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Archer Daniels Midland Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Archer Daniels Midland Company Quote
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 29.6%. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.3%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Key Points to Note Ahead of ADM’s Q3 Results
ADM’s Ag Services & Oilseeds segment is likely to have benefited from a constructive biofuels margin environment, supported by favorable renewable fuel policies and elevated global energy prices. Strong demand for vegetable oils used in biofuel production is likely to have supported crushing margins, while improved asset utilization and operational efficiencies might have strengthened processing performance. Management indicated that a substantial portion of North American crushing margins for the third quarter had already been secured, providing greater visibility into segment performance. Additionally, sustained global demand for soybean meal, supported by healthy pork and poultry consumption, is likely to have aided oilseed processing and export activity.
The company’s Carbohydrate Solutions segment is likely to have gained from favorable ethanol market fundamentals. Strong domestic blending economics, supported by renewable fuel incentives, along with competitive U.S. ethanol prices in international markets, are likely to have bolstered demand and margins. ADM’s continued focus on improving production yields, optimizing plant operations and enhancing carbon intensity verification processes might have supported ethanol profitability. Furthermore, management’s efforts to maximize the benefits of clean fuel production incentives are likely to have strengthened segment performance. Stabilizing industrial starch demand, particularly from packaging and related applications, might also have provided incremental support during the quarter.
ADM’s Nutrition segment is likely to have benefited from sustained momentum in Flavors, supported by healthy customer demand across international markets and continued traction with local customers in Asia Pacific. Favorable product and geographic mix, alongside disciplined margin management, might have aided Human Nutrition profitability. Additionally, continued operational progress at the Decatur East facility is likely to have supported Specialty Ingredients volumes, enabling the company to regain previously disrupted business. Improving demand for emulsifiers, postbiotics and fiber-based ingredients might have provided further support. Animal Nutrition is also likely to have benefited from operational improvements and portfolio optimization initiatives, strengthening overall segment profitability.
Despite these favorable developments, certain headwinds might have constrained ADM’s third-quarter performance. Persistent weakness in North American liquid sweetener demand and margins is likely to have weighed on Carbohydrate Solutions, partially offsetting ethanol-related gains. Management also indicated that Ag Services performance could moderate sequentially despite favorable trading conditions, potentially limiting the segment’s contribution. Meanwhile, oversupply conditions in South American refined products markets might have pressured margins. Within Nutrition, consumer affordability concerns affecting dietary supplements, alongside elevated energy and packaging costs, could have constrained profitability. Higher performance-based compensation and continued investments in technology, automation and research and development might also have increased corporate expenses.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Ag Services and Oilseeds segment’s revenues is pegged at $17.7 billion, suggesting 13.8% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for the Carbohydrate Solutions segment is $2.9 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 7.2%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for ADM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Archer Daniels this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.
Archer Daniels currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Valuation Picture
The company has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 13.72X, which is below both the five-year high of 18.93X and the Agriculture - Operations industry’s average of 15.93X.
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The recent market movements show that ADM’s shares have risen 0.9% in the past six months against the industry's 25.1% decline.
ADM’s performance is notably stronger than its competitors, Mission Produce Inc. AVO, Limoneira Company LMNR and Dole plc DOLE, which lost 13.7%, 18.3% and 16.4%, respectively, during the same timeframe.
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Investment Thesis
Archer Daniels's investment case is supported by favorable biofuel market fundamentals, improving operational execution and strengthening earnings prospects across its core businesses. Constructive crushing margins, robust ethanol demand and renewable fuel incentives are likely to support profitability, while the company's extensive global agricultural network provides flexibility to capitalize on shifting trade flows. Continued progress in Nutrition, particularly Flavors and Specialty Ingredients, adds diversification to its earnings base. Management's focus on cost efficiencies, capacity optimization and disciplined capital allocation further reinforces the company's growth prospects.
However, ADM continues to face challenges from weak liquid sweetener demand, margin pressures in certain refined products markets and elevated operating costs. Geopolitical uncertainties and commodity market volatility could also influence earnings consistency. Nonetheless, upward earnings estimate revisions and stronger-than-industry share price performance suggest improving investor confidence. Although ADM trades below its historical valuation peak, its current multiple reflects expectations of sustained earnings momentum. The company's ability to maintain favorable processing margins and translate operational efficiencies into consistent profitability will remain crucial to supporting its valuation.
Conclusion
ADM appears well-positioned to benefit from constructive biofuel fundamentals, improving Nutrition performance and ongoing operational initiatives. Its favorable earnings outlook, positive estimate revisions and relative stock price strength support a constructive investment stance. However, persistent demand softness in certain businesses and exposure to volatile agricultural and energy markets warrant caution. Investors may prefer to assess whether the upcoming quarterly results demonstrate sustained margin strength and broader earnings contributions before taking a more decisive position.
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Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).