Expedia Group EXPE is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 4, after the closing bell.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Expedia expects revenues of $4.65-$4.75 billion, indicating 5-8% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is pegged at $4.73 billion, indicating 7.2% year-over-year growth.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $8.77 per share, reflecting an increase of 1 cent over the past 30 days. The estimate indicates 15.9% year-over-year growth.
Expedia Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Expedia Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Expedia Group, Inc. Quote
Expedia surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 14.74%.
Let us see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.
Factors Likely to Shape EXPE’s Q3 Results
Expedia's business-to-business (B2B) arm is likely to have sustained robust momentum in the third quarter, supported by demand from travel partners seeking inventory, technology and servicing through a single platform. In the second quarter, B2B gross bookings rose 21% year over year, while revenues increased 23% to $1.49 billion, extending the business' run of double-digit growth to 20 consecutive quarters. Elevated marketing activity among major partners and a network of more than 70,000 partners provided additional support. The integration of Tiqets and efforts to expand the one-stop travel offering are expected to have strengthened partner engagement and contributed to EXPE's top-line growth in the quarter under review.
Strength across Expedia's consumer brands, particularly in the United States, is likely to have supported third-quarter bookings. Consumer gross bookings increased 8% year over year in the second quarter, fueled by the fastest U.S. growth in 15 quarters. Travelers continued to prioritize trips, with longer stays and earlier booking windows even as hotel and airfare prices rose. Expedia also expanded its supply offering by adding Allegiant flights in July, achieving coverage of all U.S. commercial airlines. Meanwhile, supplier-funded lodging promotions, which featured in more than 40% of Vrbo bookings in the second quarter, are expected to have helped attract price-conscious travelers and support conversion in the to-be-reported quarter.
Expedia's third-quarter consumer business is likely to have benefited from AI-led conversion improvements and efficient marketing. AI-powered recommendations and property rankings have been improving purchasing decisions, while the company recorded record attach rates as travelers bundled hotels, cars or insurance with existing bookings. Vrbo's natural-language search and updated Property Expert and AI Compare tools may have strengthened engagement, although management said their near-term impact on conversion remained limited. In the second quarter, B2C bookings rose 8%, while corresponding direct marketing spending increased just 1%. These efficiencies, alongside stronger higher-tier loyalty retention, are expected to have supported customer spending and cushioned costs in the quarter under review.
However, regional travel softness and air-capacity constraints are likely to have weighed on Expedia's third-quarter demand. In the second quarter, booked room nights grew only at a low-single-digit rate in EMEA, with Europe particularly pressured by weaker outbound travel and reduced airline capacity. The Middle East conflict has also affected jet-fuel costs, contributing to elevated airfares and potential pressure on discretionary trips. Booked air tickets declined 5% year over year in the second quarter, highlighting the fragility of the air segment. While U.S. consumers have remained relatively resilient, persistent international travel disruptions and higher ticket prices are expected to have limited booking volumes and muted the company's growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
Profit margins are likely to have faced pressure as Expedia laps the marketing and overhead savings achieved a year earlier. The company expects the pace of margin expansion to moderate in the third quarter because of increased B2B investments, unfavorable net currency movements and tougher cost comparisons. B2B adjusted EBITDA margin fell 258 basis points year over year to 24.8% in the second quarter, reflecting partner mix and acquisition-related costs. Continued spending on partner promotions, technology and the one-stop travel platform may have weighed on profitability. Expedia's guided third-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.5-32.8% is below the 32.9% reported a year ago, highlighting the earnings risk.
What Our Model Says About EXPE Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Expedia this time around. Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here, as you can see below.
The latest accessible Zacks figures for EXPE show an Earnings ESP of -2.32% and a Zacks Rank #3. Although a negative Earnings ESP does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss, the combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings in their upcoming releases:
American Public Education APEI presently has an Earnings ESP of +1.56% and a Zacks Rank #2. APEI’s shares have returned 10% year to date. APEI is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 9. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Angel Studios, Inc. ANGX presently has an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #2. However, ANGX’s shares have fallen 25.9% year to date. ANGX is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 10.
AMC Global Media Inc. AMCX presently has an Earnings ESP of +681.82% and a Zacks Rank #3. AMCX’s shares have declined 15.6% year to date. AMCX is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 9.
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Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE): Free Stock Analysis Report
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