Trip.Com Group Ltd current report, Q4 FY2008

Business Context and Reporting Period

Company: Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (Nasdaq: CTRP)
Filing Type: Form 6-K (Report of Foreign Private Issuer)
Reporting Period: Third Quarter ended September 30, 2008
Filing Date: November 18, 2008
Business Overview: A leading travel service provider in China offering hotel accommodations, airline tickets, and packaged tours to business and leisure travelers.

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Q3 2008 (RMB) Q3 2008 (USD) YoY Change
Net Revenues 370 million 55 million +15%
Gross Margin 77% - -3% (vs 80% in Q3 2007)
Income from Operations (GAAP) 107 million 16 million -4%
Income from Operations (Non-GAAP) 138 million 20 million +3%
Net Income (GAAP) 104 million 15 million -5%
Net Income (Non-GAAP) 136 million 20 million +2%
Diluted EPS per ADS (GAAP) RMB 1.52 US$ 0.22 -
Diluted EPS per ADS (Non-GAAP) RMB 1.97 US$ 0.29 -
Cash and Short-term Investments 1.4 billion 207 million -

Note: Non-GAAP figures exclude share-based compensation charges of RMB 31 million (US$ 5 million).

Material Changes vs. Prior Period

  • Revenue Growth: Total revenues increased 15% year-over-year to RMB 397 million. Net revenues also rose 15% to RMB 370 million.
  • Segment Performance:
    • Hotel Reservations: Revenue up 6% YoY (RMB 186 million) due to increased booking volume, though down 5% sequentially.
    • Air-ticketing: Revenue up 21% YoY (RMB 166 million) driven by a 37% increase in sales volume, partially offset by a 12% decrease in commission per ticket due to lower ticket prices.
    • Packaged Tours: Revenue up 37% YoY (RMB 28 million) due to increased leisure travel volume.
  • Expense Increases:
    • Product development expenses rose 28% YoY to RMB 61 million.
    • Sales and marketing expenses increased 12% YoY to RMB 71 million.
    • General and administrative expenses increased 24% YoY to RMB 45 million, largely due to personnel resources and share-based compensation.
  • Profitability: GAAP operating margin declined to 29% from 34% in Q3 2007. Non-GAAP operating margin was 37% compared to 41% in the prior year.
  • Tax Rate: The effective tax rate increased to 17% from 15% in Q3 2007 due to the application of the new PRC Enterprise Income Tax Law (25% statutory rate).

Guidance, Outlook, and Risks

  • Management Commentary: CEO Min Fan noted that despite a tough environment for the travel industry in China, Ctrip outperformed peers with healthy revenue growth. The company is focusing on gaining market share and strengthening leadership.
  • Outlook: For the fourth quarter of 2008, Ctrip expects year-on-year net revenue growth to be in the range of 5-15%.
  • Risks and Uncertainties:
    • Slowdown of economic growth or economic downturn in China.
    • Inflation and disruptions in financial markets affecting the global economy.
    • Declines or disruptions in the travel industry.
    • Volatility in the trading price of Ctrip's ADSs.
    • Reliance on relationships with travel suppliers and strategic alliances.
    • Risks associated with PRC laws and regulations governing internet content providers.

Investor Verification Checklist

  • Verify the impact of the new PRC Enterprise Income Tax Law on future effective tax rates.
  • Monitor the trend in air-ticketing commission rates versus sales volume to assess margin sustainability.
  • Review the reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP results to understand the recurring nature of share-based compensation charges.
  • Assess the company's ability to maintain the 5-15% revenue growth guidance amidst global economic volatility.
  • Confirm the liquidity position given the cash balance of RMB 1.4 billion against operating expenses.