Trivago N.V. annual report, Q4 FY2019

Trivago N.V. — FY2019 Form 20-F

Reporting period: Fiscal year ended December 31, 2019. This is an annual report, not a standalone Q4 filing; the supplied filing text does not provide clear Q4-only financial results. Figures are in euros unless stated otherwise. Financial statements are prepared under U.S. GAAP.

Business context

Trivago operates a global hotel and accommodation metasearch platform, earning most revenue when users click advertiser offers and are referred to advertisers’ sites. Its marketplace is predominantly CPC-based. In 2019, it generated 522.0 million Qualified Referrals and offered access to more than 4.5 million accommodations, including over 3.3 million alternative-accommodation units.

Financial and operating performance

MetricFY2019FY2018Change
Total revenue€838.6 million€914.8 millionDown 8.3%
Referral revenue€823.6 million€899.8 millionDown 8.5%
Operating income/(loss)€38.2 million(€19.2 million)Improved €57.3 million
Net income/(loss)€17.2 million(€21.5 million)Improved €38.7 million
Adjusted EBITDA€70.0 million€14.6 millionUp €55.4 million
Adjusted EBITDA margin8.3%1.6%Up 6.7 percentage points
Operating cash flow€74.2 million(€4.6 million)Improved €78.8 million

Advertising expense fell 15.8% to €616.7 million; total selling and marketing expense declined 17.6% to €664.2 million. The reduction in marketing spend and other selling and marketing costs was the principal driver of the operating turnaround, despite lower revenue. Operating margin was 4.5%, compared with (2.1%) in 2018; net margin was 2.0%, compared with (2.3%). Income tax expense rose to €21.0 million, producing a 55.7% effective tax rate.

Qualified Referrals decreased 21.9% to 522.0 million, while revenue per Qualified Referral rose 17.0% to €1.58. Consolidated ROAS improved to 133.6% from 122.8%. Referral revenue declined across all segments: Americas 3.4% to €305.1 million, Developed Europe 8.4% to €347.1 million, and Rest of World 16.3% to €171.5 million.

Liquidity, cash flow and debt

Cash and cash equivalents were €218.1 million at year-end, up from €161.9 million. The company also reported €10.0 million of short-term investments and total cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of €220.5 million. Operating cash generation benefited partly from a €24.9 million cash-flow contribution from accounts receivable, including related-party receivables, as balances declined.

Investing activities used €18.0 million, including €10.0 million invested in short-term investments; capital expenditures were €8.0 million. Financing activities used €0.1 million. No borrowings were outstanding under the €50 million Expedia-guaranteed credit facility. Separately, operating lease liabilities totaled €99.7 million, including €5.0 million current; these are lease obligations, not drawn credit-facility debt. The company stated that available cash, operating cash flow and its facility should meet needs for at least the next 12 months.

Material changes, outlook and risks

  • Profitability improved while revenue contracted: Management attributed the rebound chiefly to tighter advertising spend and improved ROAS. Traffic volume fell substantially, so sustained profitability depends on maintaining referral quality and advertiser bids.
  • Advertiser concentration remains high: Expedia Group-affiliated brands contributed 34% of FY2019 revenue and Booking Holdings-affiliated brands 40%. Nearly all advertiser agreements can be terminated at will or on three to seven days’ notice.
  • Marketplace and competition: New time-to-travel and length-of-stay bid modifiers introduced in 2019 caused advertisers to adjust bids. Management also cited Google’s competing hotel-search product, softer CPC bidding in Developed Europe during peak summer, and reduced OTA marketing emphasis.
  • 2020 plans, not formal earnings guidance: Management planned large-scale first-half tests to optimize traditional performance marketing and said these could cause a double-digit revenue decline in Developed Europe in Q1 and Q2. The filing does not provide full-year numerical guidance. Plans also included product transparency improvements and developing alternative revenue streams.
  • Travel disruption: The filing said the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak was expected to negatively affect global business volumes in 2020. Broader economic weakness, travel demand, seasonality and foreign-exchange movements were also identified as risks.
  • Australian consumer-law case: In January 2020, the Federal Court found that Trivago had breached Australian consumer law concerning price advertising and offer displays. Trivago appealed part of the judgment in March 2020. A provision was recorded at year-end, but the filing does not provide a clear amount; the ultimate penalty was uncertain and could exceed the provision.
  • Management and governance: Founder Rolf Schrömgens left the CEO role on December 31, 2019; Axel Hefer succeeded him and Matthias Tillmann became CFO. Expedia Group held 68.1% of voting power, limiting other shareholders’ influence.
  • Other notable events: Trivago disclosed a cyber-related vendor-impersonation fraud in early 2020 that resulted in payments of less than €1 million to fraudulent accounts. It reported effective internal control over financial reporting at December 31, 2019 and received an unqualified audit opinion.

Most important facts for investors to verify

  • Whether improved margins and ROAS can persist as referral volumes decline and marketing tests reduce traffic.
  • Actual Q1 and Q2 2020 Developed Europe revenue impact, and the results of the performance-marketing tests.
  • The final Australian penalty, appeal outcome and adequacy of the recorded provision.
  • Advertiser concentration, CPC bid trends and receivable exposure to Expedia and Booking Holdings.
  • Cash-flow quality, including the contribution from falling receivables, and liquidity after lease commitments.
  • The drivers of the 55.7% effective tax rate and the resolution of uncertain tax positions.