Business Context and Reporting Period
Company: BP p.l.c.
Filing Type: Form 6-K (Report of Foreign Issuer)
Date: January 14, 2026
Period Covered: Fourth Quarter 2025 (4Q25) and Full Year 2025 (FY25) guidance update.
Context: This trading statement provides current estimates for 4Q25 performance and updates full-year guidance. Final audited results are expected on February 10, 2026.
Key Financial Metrics and Guidance
- Net Debt: Expected to be in the range of $22 to $23 billion at the end of 4Q25, down from $26.1 billion at the end of 3Q25.
- Divestment Proceeds: Full year proceeds expected to be around $5.3 billion (up from previous guidance of above $4 billion), including approximately $3.5 billion received in 4Q25.
- Adjusting Items: Post-tax impairments expected in the range of $(4) to $(5) billion, primarily related to transition businesses within the gas and low carbon energy segment.
- Tax Rate: Underlying effective tax rate for FY25 expected to be around 42% (previously guided at around 40%), driven by changes in the geographical mix of profits.
- Capital Expenditure: Full year guidance remains around $14.5 billion.
- Trading Conditions (4Q25 Averages):
- Brent: $63.73/bbl (vs. $69.13/bbl in 3Q25).
- US Gas Henry Hub: $3.55/mmBtu (vs. $3.07/mmBtu in 3Q25).
- BP RIM: $15.2/bbl (vs. $15.8/bbl in 3Q25).
Material Changes vs. Prior Comparable Period
- Upstream Production: Reported production expected to be broadly flat compared to 3Q25. Oil production & operations are expected to be flat, while gas & low carbon energy production is expected to be lower.
- Realizations Impact:
- Gas & Low Carbon Energy: Expected negative impact of $(0.1) to $(0.3) billion vs. prior quarter due to non-Henry Hub price changes.
- Oil Production & Operations: Expected negative impact of $(0.2) to $(0.4) billion vs. prior quarter, including price lags in the Gulf of America and UAE.
- Customers & Products:
- Customers: Seasonally lower volumes with broadly flat fuels margins.
- Products: Stronger realized refining margins (~$0.1 billion) offset by higher turnaround activity and reduced capacity following a fire at the Whiting refinery. Oil trading result expected to be weak.
Outlook, Risks, and Unusual Items
- Impairments: Significant post-tax charges of $4–5 billion are anticipated, primarily affecting the gas and low carbon energy segment. These are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.
- Operational Disruptions: The Whiting refinery fire has temporarily reduced capacity and impacted 4Q25 results. Oil trading is expected to be weak.
- Forward-Looking Risks: Management highlights risks including crude and gas price fluctuations, currency volatility, supply/demand imbalances, regional pricing differentials, and geopolitical factors (wars, terrorism, cyber-attacks).
- Guidance Validity: All guidance items from the 3Q25 announcement remain applicable unless explicitly updated in this statement.
Investor Verification Checklist
- Verify the final magnitude of the $4–5 billion impairment charges and their specific allocation across transition businesses.
- Confirm the extent of the Whiting refinery fire's impact on full-year refining margins and capacity recovery timelines.
- Monitor the realization of the $5.3 billion in divestment proceeds and the resulting net debt reduction to the $22–23 billion range.
- Assess the impact of the revised 42% underlying effective tax rate on final full-year earnings per share.
- Review the final 4Q25 oil trading results, which are currently expected to be weak.