ConocoPhillips — 2016 Form 10-K
Reporting period: Fiscal year ended December 31, 2016. This is an annual report, not a standalone fourth-quarter filing. ConocoPhillips is an independent exploration and production company operating in 17 countries.
Financial and operating performance
- Revenue: Sales and other operating revenues were $23.7 billion, down 20% from $29.6 billion in 2015, principally reflecting lower commodity prices.
- Profitability: Loss from continuing operations was $3.56 billion, versus a $4.37 billion loss in 2015; loss attributable to ConocoPhillips was $3.62 billion, or $2.91 per share. Lower exploration costs, operating expenses and impairments helped, while weaker prices, lower sales volumes and higher interest expense offset some improvement. The filing does not provide a single clearly defined operating-margin measure.
- Cash flow and investment: Operating cash flow was $4.40 billion, down 42% year over year. Capital expenditures and investments were $4.87 billion, down 52%. Asset-sale proceeds were $1.29 billion. Cash increased to $3.61 billion.
- Liquidity and debt: Total debt was $27.28 billion, up from $24.88 billion; debt-to-capital rose to 44% from 38%. Cash plus $6.75 billion of available revolving-credit capacity supported liquidity. Current assets were $8.61 billion and current liabilities $6.91 billion.
- Production and prices: Average production was 1.569 million BOE per day, down 1%. Worldwide realized price fell 17% to $28.35 per BOE. Average crude oil price was $40.86 per barrel, natural gas $3.00 per MCF, NGLs $16.68 per barrel and bitumen $15.27 per barrel.
- Reserves: Year-end proved reserves were 6.424 billion BOE, down from 8.180 billion BOE. Negative reserve replacement was 194% for 2016; management attributed reserve reductions chiefly to lower prices and asset dispositions, including significant bitumen revisions.
Changes from the prior comparable period
- Revenue and operating cash flow declined substantially as oil, gas, NGL and bitumen prices remained weak, although prices strengthened in the fourth quarter.
- The continuing-operations loss narrowed by about $812 million. Exploration expense fell 54%, production and operating expense fell 19%, and reported impairments fell markedly versus 2015, which included a $1.5 billion APLNG investment impairment.
- Production edged lower overall, but excluding Libya and adjusted for downtime and dispositions, management reported 3% growth. New project production, including APLNG and Canadian oil sands, partly offset field decline and sold volumes.
- Debt increased and debt-to-capital rose despite approximately $2.3 billion of debt repayment in the second half. Dividends paid fell to $1.25 billion from $3.66 billion after the quarterly rate was cut from $0.74 to $0.25 per share.
Outlook, commentary and key risks
- 2017 outlook: Production guidance is 1.540–1.570 million BOE per day, excluding Libya and future dispositions. The company set a $5 billion capital budget, targeting investment to maintain production and fund the existing dividend. Its 2017–2019 plan assumes Brent at or above $50 per barrel and $5–$8 billion of asset-sale proceeds.
- Capital allocation: Management prioritized maintaining production and the existing dividend, then dividend growth and debt reduction, followed by share repurchases and production growth. The company announced a three-year, up-to-$3 billion repurchase program and a 6% quarterly dividend increase to $0.265 beginning in 2017. It targeted debt of $20 billion by year-end 2019.
- Portfolio and unusual items: The company continued a planned $5–$8 billion asset-disposition program, primarily involving North American natural gas assets. APLNG’s estimated fair value exceeded book value at year-end, but management said it could fall below book value by March 31, 2017 if then-current price and currency outlooks persisted. The filing also reports an $88 million gain from mineral properties received from a trust and a $76 million pretax damage-settlement benefit.
- Risks: Results, cash flow, reserve economics and asset values remain highly exposed to commodity prices. Other material risks include reserve replacement, impairment, access to capital and credit-rating changes, execution and pricing of planned asset sales, environmental and climate regulation, operational and cyber incidents, geopolitical instability, joint-venture performance and counterparty credit.
- Contingencies and subsequent developments: Venezuela expropriation damages remained in arbitration. In February 2017, an Ecuador tribunal awarded Burlington $380 million, while separately awarding Ecuador $42 million for specified impacts; Ecuador sought annulment. A $43 million pretax Angola rig-cancellation charge was expected in first-quarter 2017. The company said known contingencies were not expected to materially affect consolidated financial position.
- Controls and audit: Management and the independent auditor concluded internal control over financial reporting was effective; the financial-statement audit opinion was unqualified. The company expected the new lease standard to have a material financial-statement impact.
Investor verification priorities
- Reconcile reported production figures, especially the distinction between 1.569 million BOE per day including Libya and the adjusted 2017 comparison base.
- Review the causes and sustainability of the 1.756 billion BOE proved-reserve decline, including oil-sands price revisions and future reserve replacement.
- Assess the assumptions, timing and net proceeds behind the $5–$8 billion asset-sale plan and the related production impact.
- Verify debt maturities, available liquidity, the $20 billion debt target and the capacity to fund capital spending, dividends and buybacks under lower-price scenarios.
- Monitor APLNG valuation, project-finance guarantees and operating performance, together with the Ecuador and Venezuela arbitration outcomes.