Elevance Health, Inc. quarterly report, Q3 FY2016

Business context and reporting period

Anthem, Inc. (the historical registrant; identified as Elevance Health in the request metadata) filed this unaudited Form 10-Q for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2016. Anthem provided health benefits and related services and reported 39.9 million medical members, up 3.1% year over year. Its reportable segments were Commercial and Specialty, Government, and Other. Unless otherwise noted, dollar amounts below are in millions.

Financial performance and condition

  • Revenue: Third-quarter operating revenue was $21,125, up 6.8%; total revenue, including investment income and investment gains and losses, was $21,404, up 7.5%. Nine-month operating revenue was $62,709, up 7.4%; total revenue was $63,149, up 7.1%.
  • Profit and EPS: Third-quarter net income was $618, down 5.7%, and diluted EPS was $2.30, down 5.3%. Nine-month net income was $2,101, down 11.7%, and diluted EPS was $7.84, down 9.5%.
  • Margins and claims: The benefit expense ratio rose to 85.5% from 83.6% in Q3 and to 83.9% from 82.0% for nine months. The SG&A ratio improved to 14.8% from 15.6% in Q3 and 15.9% for nine months. Net income as a share of total revenue fell to 2.9% from 3.3% in Q3 and to 3.3% from 4.0% for nine months.
  • Cash flow: Nine-month operating cash flow was $2,930, down from $3,167. Investing used $1,185 and financing used $1,314. Cash and cash equivalents ended the period at $2,546, up from $2,114 at year-end 2015.
  • Liquidity and debt: Cash, cash equivalents and investments, including long-term investments, totaled $24,985. Parent-company cash and investments available for general corporate use were $2,072. The reported debt-to-capital ratio was 38.7%, versus 40.8% at December 31, 2015. Total assets were $64,400 and shareholders’ equity was $24,744.
  • Capital returns: Dividends were $0.65 per share in Q3, versus $0.625 a year earlier. No shares were repurchased under the repurchase program during the first nine months of 2016.

Material changes versus comparable periods

  • Revenue growth reflected premium rate increases, Medicaid membership expansion, growth in ACA-compliant individual products, and higher self-funded administrative fees. Medical membership increased by 1.2 million; Medicaid membership rose 9.4% and Government segment membership rose 6.2%.
  • Government Business revenue grew 10.9% in Q3 and 11.4% over nine months, but operating gain fell 23.6% and 19.6%, respectively. Management attributed the pressure to Medicaid medical costs exceeding rate adjustments, including higher-than-expected experience in Iowa, a market entered in 2016.
  • Commercial and Specialty operating gain increased 3.0% in Q3 and 7.4% for nine months. Lower expense ratios and favorable risk-adjustment accrual adjustments helped, partly offset by higher Individual medical costs.
  • Higher claims payments and membership growth contributed to lower operating cash flow. Nine-month investment impairment losses recognized in income increased to $104 from $55; realized financial-instrument results shifted to a $24 loss from a $127 gain, largely reflecting derivative losses. In Q3, however, realized results improved to an $89 gain from an $12 loss.
  • Higher interest expense, including amortization of fees for Cigna acquisition financing commitments, and acquisition-related costs weighed on nine-month earnings. Higher taxes and lower Government results contributed to the Q3 net-income decline.

Outlook, commentary, risks and unusual items

  • Management estimated 2016 cost-of-care trend of 7.0%–7.5% for Local Group fully insured business only. It reported consistent outpatient and professional utilization, lower inpatient and pharmacy utilization, and provider rate increases as a key cost driver. No consolidated earnings or EPS guidance is stated in the filing text.
  • Pending Cigna acquisition: The proposed transaction was valued at approximately $53 billion, subject to closing-price adjustment, and was to be funded with cash and new debt. DOJ and certain state attorneys general sued to block it; trial was expected to begin November 21, 2016. The agreement contemplated closing by January 31, 2017, extendable to April 30, 2017 under specified conditions. Anthem estimated pro forma debt-to-capital of about 49% after closing and targeted the low-40% range roughly 24 months later. A termination under certain regulatory circumstances could require a $1,850 termination fee. These are forward-looking estimates, not completed outcomes.
  • Legal and operational exposures: Anthem sued pharmacy-benefit manager Express Scripts, alleging pricing above competitive benchmarks and operational breaches; its claimed pricing damages were approximately $13 billion over the remaining agreement term and $1.8 billion for the transition period, plus more than $158 in operational damages. Express Scripts disputed the claims and asserted counterclaims. The company also disclosed ongoing litigation related to its 2015 cyberattack; it could not reasonably estimate related possible losses and expected further remediation expenses.
  • For other specified legal proceedings where losses were reasonably possible and estimable, Anthem reported an aggregate range of $0–$250 in excess of established reserves. It cautioned that many individual matters could not be estimated. A potential Penn Treaty insurer liquidation could lead to future guaranty-fund assessments; net exposure was not estimable.
  • Medical claims reserves involved significant judgment. Anthem recorded $773 of favorable prior-year claims development for the first nine months, versus $818 a year earlier. Management identified claims trend and completion factors as key assumptions.
  • Cash-flow hedges and financing-related derivatives were notable: Anthem paid $832 upon expiration of swaps during Q3 and reported $554 of net unrecognized cash-flow-hedge losses in accumulated other comprehensive loss. It estimated that hedge amortization would add about $19 to interest expense over the following 12 months.
  • Management said the company had sufficient resources for operations and commitments, while noting potential effects from health-care regulation, medical-cost trends, acquisition approval and integration, credit-rating downgrades, litigation, cyber risk, and restrictions on subsidiary distributions. Rating agencies had placed certain ratings under review following the merger announcement.

Key facts for investors to verify

  1. Whether the proposed Cigna acquisition received approvals, closed, or triggered financing, dilution, leverage, or termination-fee consequences.
  2. Whether Government segment medical-cost experience, particularly Medicaid and Iowa, improved relative to premium rate adjustments.
  3. How claims reserve development and the medical claims payable estimate changed in subsequent filings.
  4. The outcome and financial impact of the Express Scripts dispute, cyberattack-related litigation and investigations, and other disclosed proceedings.
  5. Whether operating cash flow, benefit expense ratios, investment losses, and acquisition-related interest costs developed as management expected.