Bear flag under 3917 after one-year low
**H1 view:** Gold collapsed from above 4060 and printed a low near **3857**, the lowest level in about a year. Since then, price has been moving sideways in a tight box between **3894 and 3917**. After a drop this strong, a pause like this usually works as a **bear flag**, a consolidation before the next leg down.
**Key levels:**
- Resistance: 3917 (top of the box), then 3935
- Support: 3894 (bottom of the box), then 3870 and 3857 (low)
- Bearish target if 3857 breaks: 3800
**Fundamentals:**
- The Fed held rates on Oct 28, but two members voted for a hike.
- US Q3 GDP came in at 3.4%, and PCE inflation rose to 3.6%. That supports a December hike and higher yields, which pressures gold.
- On the other side, central bank buying and record ETF inflows could slow the decline.
- This week: ISM Manufacturing today and the US jobs report (NFP) on Friday.
**Trade: SELL LIMIT XAUUSD (H1)**
I want to sell the top of the box, in the direction of the trend.
- Entry: 3915
- SL: 3928
- TP1: 3894
- TP2: 3870
**Invalidation:** an H1 close above 3935 breaks the flag and opens a deeper correction toward 3975.
Not financial advice – manage your risk.

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