Tesla TSLA is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings and revenues is pegged at 36 cents per share and $21.92 billion, respectively.
The consensus mark for earnings has declined 2 cents over the past seven days. The bottom-line estimate implies a 33.3% increase from the year-ago level. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 13.4%.
The company beat earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, delivering an average negative surprise of 7.66%.
Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Tesla, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Tesla, Inc. Quote
Factors to Shape Q1 Results
In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles (including 341,893 Model 3/Y and 16,130 other models), beating our estimate of 343,949 units. Deliveries declined sequentially but rose a modest 2.2% year over year. High competition, cooling EV demand post the withdrawal of federal tax incentives and an aging vehicle lineup limited delivery growth.
We expect revenues from automotive sales to increase 10.1% in the to-be-reported quarter. Gross margins from automotive sales are expected at 16%, up from 15% in the year-ago period. Year-over-year delivery growth and expected margin expansion are likely to support the company’s upcoming results.
Tesla is positioned to benefit from rising Energy Generation and Storage revenues, supported by strong demand for Megapack and Powerwall. Deployments have grown at a 168% CAGR over the past three years, with further momentum expected from the rollout of Megapack 3 and Megablock.
In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla deployed 8.8 GWh of energy storage. Our estimate for Energy Generation & Storage revenues is pegged at $3.39 billion, suggesting 24% year-over-year growth.
Tesla’s charging division is expected to have boosted profitability, supported by its global network of more than 77,000 connectors and the adoption of its North American Charging Standard by major automakers such as Ford, General Motors and Mercedes-Benz, making it a promising revenue stream. Our estimate for revenues from the Services/Other unit is pegged at $3.37 billion, implying 27.8% year-over-year growth.
Tesla plans to increase capital expenditures to roughly $20 billion this year, significantly above last year’s $8.5 billion and its prior peak of $11.3 billion in 2024, as it accelerates investments in AI, autonomous driving and robotics. However, with monetization from AI, robotaxis and Optimus likely years away, this elevated spending could pressure near-term financials even as it supports long-term growth.
What Does Our Model Say?
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Tesla has an Earnings ESP of -19.36%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at 29 cents, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Tesla currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few players from the auto space that, per our model, have the correct ingredients to deliver an earnings beat this time around.
Dana Inc DAN is scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 29. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.25% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dana’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 39 cents and $1.77 billion, respectively. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of almost 67.01%.
Lear Corporation LEA is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 1. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.10% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lear’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.30 per share and $5.87 billion, respectively. LEA surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 14.26%.
Lucid Group, Inc. LCID is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 5. The company has an Earnings ESP of +10.64% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lucid’s loss per share and revenues is pegged at $2.59 and $428.67 million, respectively. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of almost 29.92%.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).