Builders FirstSource, Inc. BLDR is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, before market open.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and net sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.9% and 2.3%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, both top and bottom lines tumbled 12.1% and 51.5%, respectively.
BLDR’s earnings topped the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being negative 0.2%.
Trend in Estimate Revision of BLDR
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Builders FirstSource’s first-quarter EPS has moved south to 39 cents from 41 cents in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 74.2% year-over-year decline from EPS of $1.51 reported in the year-ago quarter.
Builders FirstSource, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Builders FirstSource, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Builders FirstSource, Inc. Quote
The consensus estimate for net sales is pegged at $3.17 billion, indicating a decline of 13.3% from $3.66 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.
Factors to Shape Builders FirstSource’s Q1 Results
Net Sales
BLDR’s top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter is expected to remain under pressure due to continued softness in residential construction markets. The company is likely to have been affected by weak housing affordability, muted consumer confidence and cautious builder activity, all of which weighed on demand exiting 2025. Single-family revenues may remain soft as builders pivot toward smaller, less complex homes to incentivize affordability, thereby reducing the sales dollars per start for BLDR. Furthermore, management anticipates that multifamily activity will remain muted, with meaningful improvements unlikely to materialize until the latter half of 2026.
BLDR’s value-added product category (representing approximately 47.7% of full-year 2025 net sales), which includes manufactured components and windows, doors and millwork, is likely to have been pressured by softer single-family activity, reduced home size and lower structural complexity, limiting demand for higher-content solutions.
On the other hand, relatively stable contributions from Specialty building products & services (about 26.8% of net sales) and Lumber & lumber sheet goods (around 25.5%) are expected to have provided some offset, supported by steady repair and remodel activity. However, commodity deflation — particularly in lumber — remains a key headwind, weighing on overall pricing and top-line performance.
BLDR’s continued focus on strategic acquisitions, disciplined cost management, productivity initiatives and expanding digital capabilities is expected to have supported performance to some extent, helping mitigate the impact of pricing pressure and moderating demand in a seasonally softer quarter.
Margins
Margins are likely to have remained under pressure in the first quarter due to lower operating leverage and a challenging commodity pricing environment. Management noted that the commodity composite exited 2025 below $350 per thousand board feet and forecasted a 2026 average of $365 to $385, which remains significantly below historical norms.
Additionally, ongoing inflationary pressures on rent and insurance, highlighted by a year-end insurance true-up, remain key areas of focus. To cushion these impacts, BLDR has initiated $100 million in SG&A-related cost actions, including $75 million in direct year-over-year reductions through facility consolidations, tighter discretionary spending and optimized labor management. These measures are intended to support profitability as the benefits materialize throughout the year.
What the Zacks Model Predicts for BLDR
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Builders FirstSource this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, this is not the case here, as you will see below.
BLDR’s Earnings ESP: BLDR has an Earnings ESP of +10.01%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of BLDR: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell).
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the respective quarters to be reported.
CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.61% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, CAVA’s earnings are expected to decline 22.7%. CAVA's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 26.5%.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected to register a 10.8% year-over-year rise. Cheesecake Factory’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 9.9%.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG has an Earnings ESP of +1.80% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Chipotle’s earnings are expected to register a 17.2% year-over-year decline. Chipotle’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 3.6%.
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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG): Free Stock Analysis Report
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE): Free Stock Analysis Report
Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR): Free Stock Analysis Report
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).