Cerebras’ (CBRS) IPO is the perfect example of how rushing to own the latest “hot” stock can make you a financial victim in just a matter of days… or even hours.
With three historic initial public offerings coming soon from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, I fear that the stock market has entered its most dangerous phase yet: the era of emotional price discovery.
More Top Stocks Daily: Go behind Wall Street’s hottest headlines with Barchart’s Active Investor newsletter.
For over a year, the private markets have operated as a hyperinflated echo chamber, bidding up anything with an artificial intelligence or advanced tech narrative to eye-watering valuations. Now that these massive entities are finally migrating to public exchanges, we are witnessing a highly predictable structural pattern. The deal prices with immense hype, explodes on day one, and immediately begins to rot under the weight of real-world technical gravity.
Cerebras, the wafer-scale chipmaker that debuted two weeks ago, was heralded as a paradigm-shifting success. It priced at $185, opened at a wild and crazy $350, and finished its first session at $311 — giving a company with $510 million in 2025 revenue a temporary, staggering market capitalization of $95 billion.
So why is it sitting more than 30% lower, under $250 a share, for an annualized return that would be rated-R if it were a movie? The answer is pure math. A trailing price-sales ratio of 186x leaves absolutely zero margin for error.
Cerebras is not an isolated incident; it is simply duplicating a well-worn playbook established by two other heavily hyped, high-profile mega-listings that peaked within minutes of their debut:
Figma (FIG)
When the design and collaboration software giant finally came to market after its broken Adobe (ADBE) merger, it was treated as a mandatory, institutional “must-own” asset. The stock enjoyed a massive day-one pop, but the peak was printed almost immediately. Once public analysts began scrutinizing its slowing net revenue retention and the severe capital required to defend its moat against generative AI competitors, the stock rolled over.
www.barchart.com Bullish (BLSH)
The crypto exchange made an absolute splash when it hit the New York Stock Exchange in August 2025. Priced at an initial $37, it instantly skyrocketed to over $115 per share on day one due to immense hype surrounding institutional crypto adoption and backing from big names like Peter Thiel.
However, the stock has since pulled back significantly as we see below. The downward trajectory after such a fiery start stems from a combination of harsh financial misses, a massive acquisition, and broader market headwinds. 70% lower for this one.
www.barchart.com Warning for SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI Fans
This recurring “pop and drop” cycle carries an incredibly urgent warning for the trio of absolute monster IPOs slated to hit the tape: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.
The structural risks seen in Cerebras, Figma, and Bullish are a perfect mirror image of what is loading up for these multibillion-dollar listings. SpaceX is reportedly targeting a near-$2 trillion public valuation while simultaneously absorbing billions in cash burn from Elon Musk’s non-core xAI infrastructure projects. Anthropic and OpenAI are tracking multihundredbillion-dollar valuations while facing astronomical compute costs and complex “circular” customer deals where revenue is recycled to buy chips.
When these companies finally list, the Wall Street marketing machine will orchestrate a retail and institutional feeding frenzy. The order books will look massively oversubscribed, and day one will almost certainly feature an explosive, media-celebrated price spike. But as Cerebras has just demonstrated over the past fortnight, the day-one price is a reflection of hype. Make your own decisions, but don’t be surprised if these IPOs follow the same pattern.
Rob Isbitts created the ROAR Score, based on his 40+ years of technical analysis experience. ROAR helps DIY investors manage risk and create their own portfolios. For Rob’s written research, check out ETFYourself.com.
On the date of publication, Rob Isbitts did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
A Giant Short Squeeze Could Be Brewing in Wolfspeed Stock The SpaceX IPO Is a Bet That Retail Investors Love Elon Musk So Much They’ll Fund His Money-Losing Empire You’ve Likely Never Heard of This Stock, But Data Center Demand Just Took Shares to New 52-Week Highs Starbucks’ AI Disaster and Sam Altman’s U-Turn Prove That AI Still Needs Humans