Few companies can gain or lose nearly $1 billion on paper before Bitcoin (BTCUSD) moves even 2%. Strategy (MSTR) can. It owns 840,447 Bitcoin, which is enough for every $1,000 price change to add or erase $840 million in value from its holdings.
This exposure was terrible for the company in the past few months as Bitcoin tumbled from its highs. In fact, Strategy had a $13 billion paper loss on its books that investors started fleeing from.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
The company’s aggressive Bitcoin-buying spree in 2025 included 225,030 Bitcoin. That cost Strategy an average of $99,840 per Bitcoin and significantly increased the average buy price for the whole portfolio.
Thankfully for Strategy, the sudden spike in BTC prices over the past week has reversed the bleeding.
www.barchart.comA Windfall for MicroStrategy?
BTC is up 22% over the past seven days and is now over Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,385. With Bitcoin above $78,000 as of this writing, the difference gives Strategy an unrealized profit of $2.85 billion.
However, Strategy is not yet making money on the expensive Bitcoin it bought in 2025. Those 225,030 Bitcoin cost an average of $99,840 and remain underwater.
Still, the turnaround gives the company much more breathing room. Many investors who ran for the exits earlier are rushing back because the upside potential from here is massive.
This is the attraction and the peril of MSTR. Another $10,000 increase in Bitcoin would add $8.4 billion to the value of Strategy’s holdings. A decline of the same size would erase just as much.
Is It a Smart Idea to Buy Back In?
MSTR stock was at a similar price back around September 2024, and the stock ended up surging 280% from there as Bitcoin rallied by around 100%. There are things to keep in mind, though.
BTC is roughly 40% higher than where it was back when MSTR traded at similar prices to today in 2024. On top of that, the average cost today is significantly higher. Both of these things are likely to hold back MSTR stock even if BTC doubled again from here.
If you do like the risk, it’s not a terrible idea. MSTR essentially boils down to a leveraged bet on Bitcoin at the end of the day, so if Bitcoin doubles, MSTR should deliver gains a little more than that.
You’ll find remarkable similarities when you compare the Volatility 2X Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) with MSTR.
www.barchart.comI’d rather buy the ETF since it can’t go bankrupt or dilute to buy more BTC at your expense. The company raised $2 billion by selling more MSTR stock just last week.
What I’d Do With MSTR Stock
Would you want to hold a leveraged crypto asset long term? Probably not, and the same thing applies here. The only time you should buy is when you are confident you are buying near bargain-basement levels. If you think that’s the case right now, you can buy.
BTC is down just 35% from its high, and MSTR is down 70%. BTC fell by over 75% from its 2021 peak, and MSTR fell by ~90%, so neither asset is at “crypto winter” prices yet.
In my opinion, with BTC near $80k, the juice is not worth the squeeze. I’d buy Bitcoin instead of taking on the additional risk with Strategy.
And if you are bent on buying a stock, investing in leading AI/growth stocks would’ve given both you (and Strategy!) higher returns over the past few years. You don’t really need a corporate maze of Bitcoin, debt, preferred stock, and constant dilution to end up being underwater while the rest of the market multiplies.
On the date of publication, Omor Ibne Ehsan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
Every $1,000 Bitcoin Move Now Swings Strategy’s Fortune by $840 Million A Major Bitcoin Short Squeeze Is Taking MicroStrategy Stock Higher. What Comes Next. Coinbase Stock Pops on a Bitcoin Short Squeeze. How to Play COIN Here. MicroCloud Hologram Invests $15.8 Million in Strategy Shares. What This Means for HOLO Stock.