Two Wall Street firms put out bullish notes on SpaceX (SPCX) on Oct. 11 and 12, and they’re more connected than they first appear. Pivotal Research raised its price target from $220 to $230 and kept a Buy rating. It believes SpaceX’s planned purchase of 800 MHz spectrum licenses could help Starlink compete with AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), and T-Mobile (TMUS) as a phone carrier. It builds on SpaceX's roughly $20 billion deal for EchoStar's (ECHO) spectrum, agreed in 2025 and set to close fully in 2027. Pivotal expects Starlink Mobile to reach 50 million U.S. subscribers by 2036, about 13% of the market. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley reiterated its $300 target ahead of Starship Flight 15, tentatively set for Nov. 8.
Why the Phone Plan Depends on the Rocket
What ties the two together is Starship. A phone network in space needs a huge number of satellites. The FCC recently approved SpaceX’s plan for 15,000 satellites that can connect directly to regular phones. Half of them must be working by October 2032. Launching that many would be slow and costly with today’s Falcon 9 rockets. Starship can carry up to 60 of Starlink’s newest V3 satellites, each with about 10 times the capacity of the older models. Morgan Stanley estimates one Starship launch could add one to two months’ worth of the capacity Falcon 9 currently delivers. The analyst firm values SpaceX’s outside launch business at just $8 of its $300 target. Most of the value comes from connectivity and AI, and Starship is what makes both possible. As I covered earlier, owning the rockets is already the one advantage SpaceX’s rivals can’t copy.
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That makes Flight 15 more important than a typical test. Reusing Starship would cut launch costs sharply. Pivotal estimates SpaceX could build its network for about $10 billion, excluding spectrum, compared with $50 billion to $100 billion for a traditional tower-based network. AT&T CEO John Stankey disagrees, arguing the plan would cost about as much as a traditional network. Starship also isn’t fully reliable yet, since all three recent V3 test flights had engine problems. In my opinion, Starlink Mobile only works if Starship works first, so Flight 15 is the event investors should watch most closely.
About SpaceX Stock
SpaceX is a space technology company that provides launch services, space transportation, and satellite communications. Its product portfolio includes the Starship launch system, Starlink satellite internet services, Falcon launch vehicles, and Dragon spacecraft. Founded in 2002, the company is headquartered in Hawthorne, California, and is led by founder and CEO Elon Musk.
Since its IPO on June 12, the stock has gained approximately 7%, yet it has underperformed the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA). Shares have been highly volatile, climbing to $200 before falling to around $115, roughly 15% below their IPO price. After trading sideways for about two months, the stock rebounded to $171 on Oct. 5. Despite recovering, the stock has experienced sharp swings since its debut, suggesting investors are still reassessing its valuation.
www.barchart.comSpaceX’s $100 Billion Revenue Target Puts Its AI Expansion in Focus
SpaceX reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on August 4. It was the company’s first-ever public earnings report. Revenue rose 92% from a year earlier to $7.8 billion, comfortably beating Wall Street's consensus of $6.81 billion. It was driven by strong growth across all major segments. Space segment revenue was $962 million, up 29% year-over-year, while Connectivity revenue was $4.3 billion, up 66% year-over-year. The company’s capital expenditures were about $18.4 billion, including roughly $15.8 billion for AI compute infrastructure. On a positive front, COO Gwynne Shotwell said that the company added more than 1.7 million Starlink subscribers globally.
Looking forward, CEO Elon Musk said the company expects to end the year with over 2 gigawatts of compute. The company has contracted an additional $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue in the first few weeks of the third quarter. This puts the company on a trajectory, including contribution from Cursor, to reach $100 billion of ARR by the end of this year. Moreover, the company plans to fly the satellites next year and provide services for Starlink Mobile’s next-generation satellites.
What Do Analysts Think of SPCX Stock?
This month, Pivotal Research maintained its Buy rating on SPCX, while raising its price target to $230 from $220. The move follows SpaceX’s agreement to acquire Grain’s nationwide wireless spectrum portfolio. The analyst believes SpaceX could use Starlink to offer a low-cost mobile service, initially targeting rural and suburban customers and bundling it with existing Starlink satellite dishes. Also, Stifel Nicolaus maintained its Buy rating on SPCX, with a price target of $190.
SPCX stock has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Out of 40 analysts covering the stock, 26 recommend a “Strong Buy,” three give a “Moderate Buy”, eight analysts stay cautious with a “Hold” rating, one has a “Moderate Sell” rating, and two have a “Strong Sell” rating. The average analyst price target for SPCX is $225, indicating a potential upside of 54%. Also, the Street-high target price of $800 suggests that the stock could rally as much as 448%.
www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Jabran Kundi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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