Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Skyward Specialty Insurance?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.17 a share, just 15 days from its upcoming earnings release on August 4, 2026.
Skyward Specialty Insurance's Earnings ESP sits at +1.39%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.17 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.15. SKWD is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
SKWD is part of a big group of Finance stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Prudential (PRU) as well.
Prudential is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on August 4, 2026. PRU's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.40 a share 15 days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prudential is $3.38, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.60%.
SKWD and PRU's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)?
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Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD): Free Stock Analysis Report
Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).