Rivian Automotive RIVN is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s loss per share and revenues is pegged at 65 cents and $2 billion, respectively.
The loss estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has been narrowed by 2 cents over the past 30 days. The bottom line suggests a year-over-year improvement of 4.3%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests 30% growth from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s revenues is pegged at $7.4 billion, suggesting an increase of roughly 37% year over year. The consensus mark for full-year loss per share is $2.28, narrower than $2.45 incurred in 2025. The consensus mark for 2027 loss per share points to a 20% narrower loss from the projected 2026 levels.
Notably, Rivian surpassed earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 15.14%.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Rivian Automotive, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Rivian Automotive, Inc. Quote
Earnings Whispers for Q3
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Rivian has an Earnings ESP of -1.54% and a Zacks Rank #2.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors at Play
Rivian built 19,751 vehicles at its Illinois plant and delivered 19,248, topping Wall Street's average estimate of 18,000, per CNBC. Deliveries rose 45.8% from the year-ago quarter and 58% sequentially.The driver was R2, a smaller and cheaper SUV that began reaching customers in June. Until then, Rivian sold only premium vehicles, the R1S SUV and R1T pickup. A lower-priced model matters more now that federal EV tax credits have ended, tariffs are biting and industry demand is soft.
Rivian’s closest peer, Lucid Group LCID, delivered 3,806 vehicles, which fell short of analyst estimates and were down 6.6% on a yearly basis and 3.7% sequentially. Meanwhile, EV giant Tesla TSLA delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter of 2026, up 1.3% sequentially but down 2.1% on a year-over-year basis.
Coming back to Rivian, its strong deliveries are likely to have boosted revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIVN’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.37 billion, implying an uptick of around 20% both on a sequential and yearly basis.
Growing software and services revenues will also drive overall results. The consensus mark for RIVN’s revenues from software and services is pegged at $629 million, up from $515 million and $416 million generated in the second quarter of 2026 and the third quarter of 2025, respectively.
That said, management expects the R2 ramp to negatively affect automotive gross profit again in the to-be-reported quarter before scale benefits emerge in the fourth quarter of 2026. Additionally, autonomy investment is also increasing, with GPU-related R&D spending expected to have stepped up during the third quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s automotive gross margins is negative $183 million, worsening from negative $36 million in the second quarter of 2026 as well as $130 million in the third quarter of 2025.
Tesla Price Performance & Valuation
Year to date, shares of Rivian have plunged 42%, underperforming the industry and Tesla but outperforming Lucid. Shares of Tesla and Lucid declined 13% and 68%, respectively, in the same timeframe.
YTD Price Performance Comparison
Rivian is trading at a forward sales multiple of 1.54X, lower than the industry’s 3.3X as well as the stock’s own 5-year median of 2.63X.
How to Play RIVN Stock Now
Rivian’s R2 is its most important growth catalyst. Deliveries began in June 2026, with lower-priced trims expected in early 2027. If demand holds as production scales, the R2 should broaden the customer base and improve utilization at the Normal plant, supporting profitability.
Rivian reaffirmed its 2026 target of 65,000 to 70,000 deliveries, up from 42,247 last year. After 41,807 in the first nine months, it needs at least 23,193 in the fourth quarter to hit the low end, about 20% above the third quarter’s record. That is demanding, but plausible if R2 output keeps rising.
Software is a second avenue. Autonomy+ take rates are trending positively, and Rivian expects to add point-to-point navigation by year-end, eyes-off functionality in 2027, and ultimately Level 4 capability. Rivian’s in-house RAP1 chip remains on track, and Uber has agreed to take up to 50,000 R2 robotaxis, committing up to $1.25 billion through 2031, contingent on milestones. Together, these could add recurring, higher-margin revenues.
Financial backing adds further support. Early this month, Volkswagen provided a $1 billion loan at a fixed 6.03% for ten years, with nothing owed until October 2028. The German auto giant has now put in roughly $5.3 billion of its $5.8 billion commitment, with the remaining $460 million arriving as equity by January 2028.
Rivian is still burning cash and dealing with margin pressure, but management expects scale benefits to emerge in the fourth quarter. With a strengthening product lineup, growing software opportunities and strong partner funding, the fundamentals favor long-term prospects. Regardless of a third-quarter beat or miss, RIVN looks like a long-term buy.
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Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).