Astrana Health, Inc. quarterly report, Q1 FY2021

Astrana Health, Inc. (then Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc.) — Q1 2021 Form 10-Q

Reporting period: Three months ended March 31, 2021. The filing presents unaudited consolidated results, including subsidiaries and consolidated variable interest entities (VIEs). The company describes itself as a physician-centric, technology-powered, risk-bearing healthcare management business, primarily serving California. Its network coordinated care for approximately 1.1 million patients through more than 7,200 contracted physicians.

Financial highlights

MetricQ1 2021Q1 2020 / prior date
Revenue$176.1 million$165.1 million; up 7%
Operating income$21.8 million$4.4 million
Operating margin12.4%2.6%
Net income$14.5 million$3.0 million
Net income attributable to Apollo Medical Holdings$13.2 million; diluted EPS $0.30$4.1 million; diluted EPS $0.11
Operating cash flow$10.0 million provided$9.3 million used
Cash and cash equivalents$205.9 million$193.5 million at Dec. 31, 2020
Cash plus marketable securities$272.8 million$261.2 million at Dec. 31, 2020
Working capital$243.9 million$223.6 million at Dec. 31, 2020
Total debt, gross$243.3 million$245.7 million at Dec. 31, 2020

Operating cash flow improved year over year, while receivables increased during the quarter, including related-party receivables. Investing activities provided $0.7 million and financing activities provided $1.3 million. The company reported $60.0 million drawn on its $100.0 million revolver, implying $40.0 million of undrawn capacity, subject to facility terms. Management said liquidity was sufficient for at least the next 12 months.

Material changes and drivers

  • Capitation revenue rose 3% to $144.7 million, reflecting membership growth at APC and Alpha Care, partly offset by declines at APA ACO and Accountable Health Care.
  • Risk-pool settlements and incentives increased 60% to $18.0 million. Management attributed the increase mainly to higher estimated settlements associated with lower hospital-partner claims, including suspension of non-emergency procedures during COVID-19.
  • Cost of services declined 2% to $140.6 million, primarily due to lower APA ACO claims expenditures. General and administrative expense fell 20% to $9.5 million, reflecting lower consulting and professional costs and property-related changes.
  • Equity-method results shifted from $2.1 million of income to a $0.7 million loss; the prior-year quarter included earnings from UCI, which was sold in April 2020. Lower borrowing rates reduced interest expense to $1.5 million from $2.9 million.
  • Cash from operations benefited from higher earnings and approximately $4.5 million collected in Alpha Care escrow and acquisition working-capital amounts.

Guidance, outlook, and risks

  • Management maintained its 2021 guidance: revenue of $690–$710 million; net income of $50–$60 million; net income attributable to ApolloMed of $35–$45 million; EBITDA of $95–$105 million; and adjusted EBITDA of $115–$125 million. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP measures; the filing provides reconciliations and cautions that actual results may differ materially.
  • For 2021, APAACO was receiving approximately $8.0 million per month under CMS’s AIPBP mechanism. Of $23.9 million received in Q1, $17.2 million was recognized as revenue; the remainder was deferred. Shared-savings or loss outcomes are subject to substantial estimation uncertainty and were described as constrained until determined.
  • Key risks include the uncertainty of medical claims and IBNR estimates, risk-pool settlements and incentives, healthcare regulation and compliance, complex payor/provider contract interpretations, and potential litigation and insurance adequacy. The company reported no material changes to the risk factors in its 2020 Form 10-K.
  • The company reported compliance with its debt covenants at quarter-end: consolidated leverage ratio of 1.44 against a stated maximum of 3.50, and interest coverage ratio of 18.21 against a minimum of 3.25. Floating-rate debt exposes results to rate changes; management estimated a hypothetical 1% rate change would alter quarterly interest expense by $2.4 million.
  • Subsequent events: APC sold approximately 1.6 million ApolloMed shares for $40.1 million in April 2021 and distributed $20.0 million to its shareholders. A January agreement to acquire a 30% interest in CAIPA MSO was expected to close by the end of Q2 2021.

Important facts for investors to verify

  1. Whether the elevated risk-pool revenue and related receivables convert to cash and are ultimately settled as estimated, particularly given the COVID-related reduction in procedures and claims.
  2. How medical liabilities, IBNR claims, and CMS AIPBP deferred balances develop as claims mature and CMS reconciles performance.
  3. The composition, collection timing, and collectability of the quarter’s increased receivables, including related-party amounts and the concentration among major payors.
  4. Whether the company achieves its full-year guidance, including how much adjusted EBITDA depends on non-GAAP adjustments and recently acquired IPAs.
  5. Debt repayment, variable-rate exposure, covenant headroom, and the availability of liquidity across consolidated entities; certain VIE assets are available only to settle obligations of those entities.
  6. Completion and terms of the CAIPA MSO investment, and the financial and ownership effects of APC’s subsequent share sale and distribution.