CCEP

Business Context and Reporting Period

Company: Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Plc (CCEP)
Filing Type: Form 6-K (Trading Update)
Reporting Period: Third Quarter ended 26 September 2025 and Year-to-Date (YTD) 2025.
Context: CCEP reported a solid third quarter, reaffirming full-year guidance despite a volatile global macroeconomic environment. The company highlighted strong execution in Europe and underlying growth in Australia/Pacific/Southeast Asia (APS), excluding portfolio changes in Australia and macro challenges in Indonesia.

Key Financial Metrics

Note: The filing does not provide specific values for net profit, operating profit, cash flow, or debt levels for the current period, though it provides guidance for the full year.

Material Changes vs. Prior Period

• Revenue Growth: Reported revenue increased 1.0% in Q3 and 3.3% YTD. On an FX-neutral basis, growth was 3.2% (Q3) and 2.7% (YTD).
• Volume Performance: Adjusted comparable volume grew 0.4% in Q3 and 0.3% YTD. Europe drove growth (+0.9% Q3), while APS declined (-0.6% Q3) due to the exit of Suntory alcohol distribution in Australia and macro challenges in Indonesia.
• Revenue per UC: Increased 2.7% in Q3, driven by headline pricing, promotional optimization, and positive pack mix. Europe saw a 3.4% increase, while APS saw a 0.3% increase.
• Geographic Divergence:
  • Europe: Revenue +3.8% (Q3). Strong performance in Great Britain (+5.9%) and FBN (+6.2%).
  • APS: Revenue -7.7% (Q3) reported, but -0.2% FX-neutral. Australia/Pacific revenue declined 8.3% reported due to the Suntory exit; Southeast Asia declined 6.8% reported.
• Category Mix: Energy drinks grew 24.0% in Q3. Coca-Cola Zero Sugar grew 6.3%. Coca-Cola Original Taste declined 2.6%.

Guidance, Outlook, and Risks

Full-Year 2025 Guidance (Adjusted Comparable & FX-Neutral)

• Revenue: Growth of 3% to 4%.
• Operating Profit: Growth of ~7%.
• Cost of Sales per UC: Comparable growth of ~2.5% (previously ~2%).
• CAPEX: ~5% of revenue.
• Comparable Free Cash Flow: At least €1.7 billion.
• Dividend Payout Ratio: ~50%.
• FX Impact: Expected headwind of ~180 basis points to revenue and ~200 basis points to operating profit.

Management Commentary

CEO Damian Gammell emphasized resilience, strong cash generation, and a strategy balancing premiumization with affordability. The company is investing in future growth through collaborations (English Premier League, Star Wars) and maintaining a growing dividend and share buyback program.

Risks and Contingencies

• Macroeconomic Volatility: Softer consumer demand in Europe and Indonesia; affordability focus impacting volume in Germany.
• Weather Events: Typhoon-related flooding in the Philippines disrupted distribution in July and August.
• Portfolio Changes: Exit of Suntory alcohol distribution in Australia impacted APS revenue per UC.
• Forward-Looking Risks: Includes changes in marketplace, raw material costs, tariff adjustments, political conditions, and regulatory changes.

Key Facts for Investor Verification

• Guidance Reaffirmation: Verify if the company can achieve the 3-4% revenue growth and ~7% operating profit growth given the FX headwinds and macro challenges in Indonesia.
• APS Recovery: Monitor the impact of the new Bacardi spirits distribution agreement starting Q4 2025 on Australia/Pacific revenue.
• Cost Inflation: Confirm if cost of sales per UC growth remains at ~2.5% as commodity inflation is expected to be broadly flat.
• Cash Flow Execution: Verify the achievement of the €1.7 billion comparable free cash flow target and the completion of the €1 billion share buyback.
• Volume vs. Price: Assess the sustainability of volume growth (+0.3% YTD) in the face of continued price increases and softer consumer sentiment.