HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. quarterly report, Q2 FY2023

Harley-Davidson, Inc. — Form 10-Q Summary

Business context and reporting period

Harley-Davidson operates through Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), LiveWire and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). This unaudited quarterly filing covers the three and six months ended June 30, 2023, compared with periods ended June 26, 2022.

Key financial metrics

MetricQ2 2023Q2 2022Change
Revenue$1.446 billion$1.469 billionDown 1.6%
Operating income$221.3 million$277.6 millionDown 20.3%
Net income attributable to Harley-Davidson$178.0 million$215.8 millionDown 17.5%
Diluted EPS$1.22$1.46Down 16.4%
Operating marginApproximately 15.3%Approximately 18.9%Down approximately 3.6 points
Cash dividends per share$0.1650$0.1575Up 4.8%

For the first six months, revenue was $3.234 billion, up 9.1%; operating income was $590.9 million, up 4.3%; net income attributable to Harley-Davidson was $482.1 million, up 10.0%; and diluted EPS was $3.27, up 12.4%.

  • HDMC Q2 revenue declined 4.5% to $1.198 billion, while operating income declined 7.9% to $194.3 million. Gross profit increased 7.8% to $417.5 million, supported by pricing, product mix and lower manufacturing costs, but operating expenses increased 26.7%.
  • Worldwide motorcycle shipments fell 10.4% to 42,934 units, primarily because of an approximately two-week production suspension at the York facility related to brake-hose compliance issues. Worldwide retail sales increased 2.6% in Q2, but first-half retail sales declined 4.5%.
  • LiveWire Q2 revenue declined 43.8% to $7.0 million, motorcycle shipments fell to 33 from 225, and operating loss widened to $32.0 million from $19.4 million.
  • HDFS revenue increased 18.6% to $240.4 million, but operating income declined 31.4% to $59.0 million. Higher interest expense and credit-loss provisions more than offset higher interest income.
  • HDFS provision for credit losses was $57.3 million in Q2, compared with $29.1 million in the prior-year quarter. The allowance for credit losses increased to $381.8 million from $352.1 million at June 26, 2022.
  • Annualized retail credit losses were 2.61% at June 30, 2023, compared with 1.40% a year earlier; 30-day delinquencies increased to 3.63% from 2.95%.

Cash flow, liquidity and debt

  • First-half operating cash flow was $410.5 million, compared with $244.2 million in the prior-year period.
  • Capital expenditures were $86.5 million, compared with $55.0 million. Net cash used in investing activities was $345.2 million.
  • Net cash provided by financing activities was $24.8 million, compared with $684.9 million in the prior-year period, reflecting lower net debt financing and lower share repurchases.
  • Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled $1.669 billion at June 30, 2023; cash and cash equivalents alone were $1.522 billion.
  • Total outstanding debt was $7.065 billion, compared with $7.793 billion at June 26, 2022. Brokered certificates of deposit totaled $439.9 million.
  • Management reported approximately $3.457 billion of cash and net credit and conduit facility availability, including $724.6 million of net credit facility availability and $1.2 billion of net U.S. commercial-paper conduit availability.
  • The Company states that it targets at least 12 months of projected liquidity needs and believes current cash and facility availability are sufficient. The U.S. commercial-paper conduit facility expires November 17, 2023, and the Canadian conduit expires June 28, 2024; management expects renewal of facilities expiring within 12 months.
  • During the first half, the Company paid $48.2 million of dividends and repurchased $169.6 million of common stock. At June 30, 2023, 5.8 million shares remained authorized for repurchase.

Material changes versus the prior comparable period

  • Q2 profitability weakened despite improved HDMC gross profit because motorcycle shipments declined, operating expenses increased, LiveWire losses widened and HDFS incurred materially higher funding costs and credit-loss provisions.
  • First-half results improved year over year because HDMC benefited from higher shipments, pricing and favorable product mix; these gains were partly offset by weaker LiveWire and HDFS performance.
  • Finance receivables, net increased to $7.510 billion at June 30, 2023 from $7.104 billion at June 26, 2022, increasing HDFS exposure to consumer credit performance.
  • Medium-term notes issued in March and April 2023 totaled approximately $1.462 billion at carrying value and carried interest rates of 6.50% and 6.36%, respectively, reflecting the higher-rate financing environment.
  • The Company adopted ASU 2022-02 on January 1, 2023; adoption did not materially affect the financial statements.

Guidance, outlook, commentary and risks

  • On July 27, 2023, management reduced 2023 HDMC revenue-growth guidance to 0%–3% from 4%–7%, reflecting the production suspension and expected wholesale shipment decline of 1%–3%.
  • HDMC operating margin guidance was reduced to 13.9%–14.3% from 14.1%–14.6%. Expected 2023 productivity savings were reduced to approximately $100 million from $140 million.
  • LiveWire reduced its 2023 unit-sales outlook to 600–1,000 motorcycles from 750–2,000, while maintaining expected operating loss guidance of $115–$125 million. LiveWire began production of the Del Mar electric motorcycle in July 2023.
  • HDFS operating income is still expected to decline 20%–25% in 2023 versus 2022. Management expects the year-over-year decline to moderate in the second half.
  • 2023 capital investment guidance remains $225–$250 million.
  • PCA brake-hose compliance matters resulted in the York production suspension. Harley-Davidson has petitioned NHTSA for determinations that the issues are inconsequential to motor vehicle safety and has accrued no related costs. A field action or recall remains possible, with an estimated aggregate cost of approximately $100 million–$400 million.
  • Key ongoing risks include higher interest rates, consumer affordability and credit deterioration, elevated delinquencies and repossession challenges, supply-chain and quality issues, foreign-exchange and tariff exposure, LiveWire execution and losses, capital-market access, and changing motorcycle demand.
  • The temporary 6% European Union tariff rate is scheduled to remain in effect through December 31, 2023; future tariff treatment remains uncertain.

Most important facts for investors to verify

  • Whether NHTSA grants the requested inconsequentiality determinations and whether a brake-hose recall or field action occurs within the estimated $100 million–$400 million range.
  • Whether HDMC achieves the revised shipment, revenue-growth and operating-margin guidance after the production interruption.
  • Whether HDFS retail credit losses, delinquencies, repossessions and allowance requirements continue to rise.
  • Whether the U.S. conduit facility is renewed before its November 17, 2023 expiration and whether HDFS can maintain cost-effective funding access.
  • Whether LiveWire’s Del Mar launch and 2023 unit-sales target can be achieved while containing its projected operating loss.
  • The effect of higher interest rates, consumer affordability, foreign-exchange movements and post-December 2023 EU tariff developments on margins and demand.