The Boeing Company BA is expected to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of 54 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pinned at $21.88 billion, indicating growth of 12.24% from the year-ago reported figure.
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BA’s Earnings Surprise History
The company beat on earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, delivering an average negative surprise of 80.4%.
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What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Boeing this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -111.79%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Currently, Boeing carries a Zacks Rank #3.
You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks Worth a Look
Some stocks in the same industry that have the combination of factors indicating an earnings beat are GE Aerospace GE and Northrop Grumman NOC. GE Aerospace and Northrop Grumman have an Earnings ESP of +0.79% and +0.22%, respectively. NOC has a Zacks Rank #2 and GE carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Factors That Might Have Impacted BA’s Q1 Performance
Rising international air travel has increased aircraft utilization, driving higher demand for commercial jet maintenance, repairs, and related services, which likely supported sales volumes for Boeing’s commercial services. Growing defense needs have boosted government spending on aftermarket aircraft repair, support, and upgrades, lifting demand for government jet services. Stronger commercial services revenues, combined with the typically higher margins of government services, are expected to have supported both top-line growth and operating earnings at Boeing Global Services in the first quarter.
The company’s first-quarter results are also likely to benefit from its efforts to reduce surplus inventory accumulated during earlier production disruptions. Lower stockpiles of parts, along with increased aircraft deliveries, should have provided an additional boost to revenues.
In the quarter under review, Boeing’s commercial aircraft deliveries grew 10% year over year, reflecting continued recovery in production and delivery momentum. On the defense side, shipments increased 15.4% from the prior-year period’s level. Such improved deliveries can be projected to have bolstered both top and bottom-line performances of Boeing’s commercial and defense business segments in the first quarter.
Boeing continues to face supply-chain pressures from tariffs and export controls, while some key suppliers still deal with financial stress. Together, these challenges likely constrained production efficiency and adversely impacted the company’s operational performance and financial health during the quarter. The continued delay of the 777X program, with first delivery now expected in 2027, along with residual impacts from past disruptions, is also expected to have pressured cash flow in the to-be-reported quarter.
BA Stock Price Performance
In the past six months, the stock has returned 5.1% compared with the industry’s growth of 4.3%.
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BA Stock Trading at a Discount
Boeing is currently trading at a discount compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/S basis.
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GE Aerospace is trading at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/S basis. Northrop Grumman is trading at a discount compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/S basis.
BA Stock’s Poor ROIC
The image below shows that BA stock’s trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) not only lags the peer group’s average return but also reflects a negative figure. This suggests that the company's investments are not yielding sufficient returns to cover its expenses.
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Investment Thesis
The steadily rising demand for commercial air travel and the replacement of aging fleets are driving the need for new jets and aftermarket services. The outlook for the aerospace giant’s defense and space segment remains positive, supported by its position as one of the world’s largest defense contractors and a key integrator for the International Space Station. Notably, the current U.S. administration’s focus on strengthening national defense and space capabilities is expected to serve as a growth catalyst for Boeing.
Although the commercial aerospace market has been benefiting from steady growth in air travel in recent times, persistent supply-chain issues, particularly arising from a shortage of aircraft parts, continue to affect the global aviation industry. This, in turn, poses a grave risk for aircraft manufacturers like Boeing.
End Note
Boeing is expected to continue to benefit from steadily rising international air travel and solid commercial and defense deliveries. However, consistent supply-chain issues are expected to have offset some of the positives during the first quarter.
Current investors may stay invested, given its price performance and attractive valuation. However, new investors may wait and look for a better entry point, considering the stock’s poor ROIC and consistent supply-chain issues.
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The Boeing Company (BA): Free Stock Analysis Report
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC): Free Stock Analysis Report
GE Aerospace (GE): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).