Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Lumen?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Lumen (LUMN) earns a #1 (Strong Buy) 18 days from its next quarterly earnings release on May 5, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at -$0.04 a share.
Lumen's Earnings ESP sits at +27.27%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the -$0.04 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.06. LUMN is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
LUMN is part of a big group of Utilities stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Atmos Energy (ATO) as well.
Atmos Energy is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on May 6, 2026. ATO's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.35 a share 19 days from its next earnings release.
For Atmos Energy, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.33 is +0.70%.
LUMN and ATO's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN)?
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Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN): Free Stock Analysis Report
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).