Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Allstate?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Allstate (ALL) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $7.95 a share, just 12 days from its upcoming earnings release on April 29, 2026.
ALL has an Earnings ESP figure of +2.42%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $7.95 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.76. Allstate is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
ALL is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. Travelers (TRV) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Travelers, which is readying to report earnings on July 16, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $4.93 a share, and TRV is 90 days out from its next earnings report.
For Travelers, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.79 is +2.85%.
ALL and TRV's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
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The Allstate Corporation (ALL): Free Stock Analysis Report
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).