Carvana Co. CVNA is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) and revenues is pegged at $1.41 and $6.12 billion, respectively.
For the first quarter, the consensus estimate for Carvana’s earnings has moved down a penny in the past 30 days. Its bottom-line estimates imply 6.62% decline from the year-ago reported numbers.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVNA's quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 44.52%. The company's earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 92.15%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Carvana Co. Price and EPS Surprise
Carvana Co. price-eps-surprise | Carvana Co. Quote
Q4 Highlights
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Carvana reported earnings of $4.22 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.13 and rose from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 56 cents. Revenues of $5.6 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.22 billion and rose 58% year over year.
Things to Note
Carvana’s retail unit sales continued to grow in the fourth quarter of 2025, rising 43% on strong demand to 163,522 units, setting a new record. The company grew unit sales by 43% in 2025. Notably, Carvana holds only a 1.6% share of the highly fragmented U.S. automotive retail market. This suggests that there is ample room for the company to expand, especially as more consumers gravitate toward online car buying. The company anticipates a sequential increase in retail unit sales in the first-quarter 2026 results.
Carvana’s fourth-quarter reconditioning cost spike underscores persistent execution risk within a structurally complex part of its operations. Rapid expansion, including opening new facilities, scaling inventory quickly, and reorganizing management, appears to have strained processes and reduced efficiency. While the company frames this as temporary, it reinforces concerns that the company’s growth strategy can create operational volatility and margin pressure, particularly in areas that have historically been difficult to manage consistently.
While an expected sequential increase in retail unit sales is likely to have bolstered Carvana’s performance in the first quarter, the reconditioning cost spike is likely to have hurt its margins.
Let’s have a look at our estimates for CVNA’s segmental performance.
We expect retail vehicle revenues to be $4.4 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 46.2%. For wholesale vehicles, we expect sales to be $991 million, indicating an increase of 14.8% year over year. We project other sales to be $591.5 million, suggesting a rise of 52.1% year over year.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Carvana for the quarter to be reported, as it has the right combination of the two key ingredients. A positive Earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here.
Earnings ESP: CVNA has an Earnings ESP of +9.82%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Carvana currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few other players from the auto space that, per our model, have the correct ingredients to post an earnings beat this time.
Dana Incorporated DAN is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 29. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.25% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dana’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 39 cents per share and $1.77 billion.
Lear Corporation LEA is scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 1. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.48% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lear’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.37 per share and $5.84 billion, respectively. LEA surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 14.26%.
Lucid Group, Inc. LCID is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 5. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.51% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lucid’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss and revenues is pegged at $2.72 per share and $428.7 million. LCID missed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average negative surprise being 29.92%.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).