Escalating Iran War Tensions and Rising Fuel Costs Just Sent These 2 Stocks to New Lows. 1 Is a Better Buy on the Dip.

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Escalating Iran War Tensions and Rising Fuel Costs Just Sent These 2 Stocks to New Lows. 1 Is a Better Buy on the Dip.

Tuesday’s action in the markets was all over the place.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% on the day, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were off 0.3% and 1.0%, respectively. Micron Technology (MU) finished down 1.4%. The company’s stock has lost 4.8% over the past three days of trading, and in a most volatile manner. 

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As a result of all the geopolitical uncertainty -- not to mention the 4.2% inflation rate in May, driven by higher fuel prices -- investors continue to search for answers about their portfolios.

Risk-on? Risk-off? Who knows?

One piece of good news: On the NYSE yesterday, 130 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 95 hit new 52-week lows. That makes sense as the NYSE is less tech-heavy. Over the Nasdaq, 216 hit new 52-week highs, and 256 hit new 52-week lows. 

Among the 351 stocks hitting new 52-week lows, there were two travel infrastructure stocks: Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB), commonly known as OMA, and Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S.A.B. de C.V. (ASR), also known as ASUR.

Should you consider one, both, or neither for your portfolio? I’ll get into the pros and cons of each.

Travel Infrastructure Usually Makes Sense

There’s an investment philosophy amongst some in the finance industry that it’s better to own the stocks of companies that have little competition but supply or support those that do. 

One example of the “picks and shovels” business model would be the utility sector and data centers. While hundreds of companies compete for AI and cloud computing supremacy, utilities like NextEra (NEE) sit back and provide the energy to run those datacenters. They’re less concerned about who wins the data center war. 

You could say the same about airport owners and operators. They’re less concerned about which airline is the “best” and more concerned with whether there are enough airlines to support a profitable business.

Normally, there are, but the current situation means airlines are reducing the number of routes and frequency of the routes they continue to operate, which in turn lowers passenger traffic and the various revenue streams an airport relies on to generate a profit. 

This explains why OMA and ASUR’s share prices are down 11.1% and 14.2%, respectively, in 2026. 

But surely the current situation will pass? One should hope so. 

Unlike COVID, there is something that the powers that be can do to rectify fuel prices -- the U.S., Iran, and Israel commit to a lasting peace plan that permanently reopens the Straight of Hormuz and gets the oil flowing again. 

Easy to say; harder to do. It will likely take the remainder of 2026 to restore some semblance of normalcy to oil transportation in the Middle East. 

Until then, both stocks face headwinds beyond their control.

The good news is that leisure travel hasn’t fallen off a cliff. American travelers are shifting their summer trips from long-haul flights to Australia and Japan to short-haul flights to Mexico and other Latin American destinations.   

Is it enough to keep OMA and ASUR profitable? I think so. 

May Traffic Saves the Day--Sort Of

In May, OMA’s total passenger traffic was 2.44 million, 3.6% higher than in May 2025, based on a 4.7% gain for domestic traffic in Mexico, and a 2.8% decline in international traffic. 

As for ASUR, its overall passenger traffic was 5.63 million, 1.6% lower than in May 2025, driven by a 1.3% gain in domestic traffic and a 6.9% decrease in international traffic. 

Reading this, you’d be inclined to think that OMA is faring better in this difficult time, operationally speaking. However, it’s best to understand each operator’s airport network before making this assumption. 

OMA operates 13 airports in Mexico. So, when it refers to international traffic, it’s referring to the traffic into and out of its 13 airports to other destinations outside Mexico. 

For example, it had a 51.3% increase in international traffic at its Acapulco airport. That’s an example of tourists coming to visit who might usually have gone to Spain or elsewhere in Europe. 

Its busiest airport is Monterrey. It had a 4.5% increase in domestic travel in May, offsetting an 8.6% decline in international traffic, which only accounted for 15% of Monterrey’s passenger traffic last month. 

There are dents in OMA’s business, but none that should scare you off the stock. 

As for ASUR, it operates nine airports in southeastern Mexico, including Cancun, its busiest by far, accounting for 69% of its traffic in Mexico and 38% overall. It also operates six airports in Colombia, and the airport in San Juan, Puerto Rico, which it owns 60% through its Aerostar Airport Holdings LLC joint venture. 

In May, Cancun’s domestic travel declined by 3.0%, while its international traffic was down 11.1%, resulting in an overall decline of 8.1% in May. 

However, its Colombian traffic increased by 6.6% to 1.41 million, driven by a 7.0% increase in domestic travel, which accounted for 77% of the total. Colombia accounted for 25% of ASUR’s 5.63 million passengers in May. 

Again, there are dents in the 13 airports’ passenger traffic, but not enough to scare you off. 

Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Returns

Over the past five years, OMA has been the better performer of the two, up 84.64%, 38.9 percentage points higher than ASUR. 

Will it continue to outperform?

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, ASUR is expected to earn $21.84 per share in 2026, $25.39 in 2027, and $27.46 in 2028. It trades at 10.2 times the 2028 estimate. OMA is expected to earn $7.40 a share in 2026, $8.85 in 2027, and $11.08 in 2028. It trades at 8.8 times the 2028 estimate. 

So, over the next three years, analysts estimate OMA’s EPS will increase by nearly 50%, while ASUR’s will grow by about half that. Advantage, OMA.

However, ASUR made two acquisitions in 2025 that make it much more interesting. 

The first was in July 2025, when it paid $295 million to acquire URW Airports LLC, which gives it the commercial concession rights to operate retail stores at several U.S. airports, including Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York. 

The second in November 2025 saw its Cancun Airport subsidiary acquire 100% of the shares of CPC Aeroportos for $2.57 billion, including the assumption of debt. CPC operates 20 airports in Latin America, including 17 in Brazil, 1 in Costa Rica, 1 in Ecuador, and 1 in Curaçao.

The transaction should close by the end of this month, pending regulatory approval. If so, its annual passenger traffic will increase by 63% to 116 million, making it the leading airport operator in the Americas. 

If you’re more conservative, OMA’s probably your cup of tea. If you believe in the future of Latin America, as I do, and you can only buy one, ASUR is the better bet. And, if you can buy both, I would do so. 


On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

 

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