SpaceX (SPCX) has been one of the market's most closely watched stocks since its blockbuster June 2026 IPO. After debuting at a valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion, the stock initially surged before losing nearly 50% from its post-IPO peak as investors questioned whether its valuation had gotten ahead of fundamentals.
Now, a fresh catalyst has emerged. Alphabet's (GOOG) (GOOGL) latest regulatory filing revealed it owns about $94.1 billion worth of SpaceX's stock, including roughly $80 billion subject to near-term lockups and another $14.1 billion restricted through late 2027.
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The disclosure boosted the Google parent company's quarterly earnings through investment gains, but it also raises an important question for investors: What does it actually mean for SPCX stock?
www.barchart.com Alphabet's Stake Could Reduce Near-Term Selling Pressure
The biggest takeaway from Alphabet's filing isn't necessarily the size of the investment; it is what those restrictions mean for the market.
Since most of Alphabet's holdings cannot be sold immediately, only a relatively small percentage of SpaceX shares remain available for public trading. That limited float could continue supporting the stock by reducing near-term selling pressure despite heightened volatility following the IPO.
At the same time, investors know those restrictions will eventually expire. As a result, future lockup expirations could become important events for SPCX shareholders over the next several quarters.
SpaceX’s Financials Show Growth, but Profitability Remains Distant
SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company highlighted both its strengths and its greatest challenge.
For the first quarter of 2026, the company generated around $4.7 billion in revenue, up roughly 15% year-over-year (YoY). Starlink remained the largest contributor, accounting for nearly 60% of total sales, while launch services and newer AI operations contributed the remainder.
However, profitability remains elusive. SpaceX posted a net loss of approximately $4.3 billion, compared with a loss of about $528 million a year earlier, as heavy spending on Starship, AI infrastructure, and research continued weighing on earnings.
The company also finished the quarter with roughly $15.9 billion in cash, although elevated capital expenditures and research spending resulted in substantial negative free cash flow.
Investing Aggressively Beyond Rockets
SpaceX is increasingly becoming more than just a launch company.
Earlier this year, it acquired Elon Musk's AI startup xAI, expanded its artificial intelligence initiatives, continued Starship development, and pushed ahead with Starlink's global rollout. The company also raised roughly $20 billion through bond financing to support infrastructure investments.
Management has made clear that 2026 will remain a heavy investment year as it builds AI computing capacity, expands satellite connectivity, and prepares Starship for larger-scale commercial operations. While these initiatives could create sizable long-term opportunities, they are also keeping expenses elevated.
Wall Street Still Sees Significant Upside for SPCX Stock
Despite the recent decline, most Wall Street analysts remain constructive on SPCX stock.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintains one of the Street's most bullish views with a $300 price target, citing SpaceX's vertically integrated business model and long-term growth opportunities.
RBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs also carry bullish ratings with price targets generally ranging from $205 to $255, supported by expectations for Starlink expansion, AI infrastructure growth, and increasing launch activity.
Not every analyst is convinced. Piper Sandler initiated coverage with a “Hold” rating and a $156 price target, arguing that the stock's valuation already reflects much of its long-term potential.
According to Barchart data, Wall Street currently maintains a “Moderate Buy” consensus on SPCX stock, with an average price target of roughly $232, implying meaningful upside of 105% from current trading levels.
www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Nauman Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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