The AI boom has reshaped the technology landscape, creating massive demand not only for GPUs and cloud infrastructure but also for data storage solutions. As enterprises generate and retain unprecedented amounts of AI training and inference data, storage has become a critical piece of the AI value chain.
Among the biggest beneficiaries of this trend has been Seagate Technology Holdings plc STX, surging an impressive 505.6% over the past year. It has outpaced the Zacks Computer-Integrated Systems industry, the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the S&P 500’s run of 218.8%, 34.4%, and 23.1%, respectively, in the same period.
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STX’s shares have exceeded its industry peers like International Business Machines Corporation IBM, but lagged HDD behemoth and its direct competitor Western Digital Corporation WDC and storage rival Micron Technology MU. WDC, MU and IBM have gained 751.4%, 676.2% and 4.1%, respectively, during the same time frame.
STX remains one of the world's leading manufacturers of enterprise HDDs and has been aggressively developing next-generation high-capacity drives specifically designed for AI data centers. The company boasts a 52-week high of $1,145. Nonetheless, such an extraordinary rally naturally raises an important question for investors: Can Seagate continue climbing, or has the market already priced in most of the opportunity?
Accelerating AI Infrastructure Spending Fuels STX’s Expansion
AI is driving an explosion in data storage. As hyperscale cloud providers continue expanding AI infrastructure, they increasingly rely on a combination of SSDs for active workloads and HDDs for large-scale data storage. This industry trend plays directly into Seagate's strengths. Major cloud providers, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms, continue investing tens of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure. As they expand AI data centers, demand for enterprise storage is rising, creating a strong long-term growth opportunity for Seagate.
Management highlighted that the company is entering a “new era of structural growth” driven by strong AI-led demand, rising adoption of Mozaic products and disciplined execution focused on expanding margins, cash flow and long-term value. While SSDs dominate high-speed applications, HDDs remain significantly more cost-effective for bulk storage—especially critical in hyperscale data centers supporting AI infrastructure. Seagate is well-positioned to capture this expanding opportunity through a technology strategy focused on increasing areal density rather than unit volumes, enabling a more capital- and manufacturing-efficient path to scale while improving cost and power efficiency per terabyte. This supports its target of mid-20% exabyte growth.
HAMR Technology Gives STX a Competitive Edge
Investment in HAMR technology is STX’s key competitive advantage. Seagate’s focus on areal density and HAMR technology supports capacity growth and cost efficiency, with new product generations planned. Mozaic 4, second-generation HAMR, delivers up to 44TB per drive, 30% more capacity than the first generation. Mozaic 4 shipments began in late March and are expected to command 70% of HAMR shipments by the end of fiscal 2027. Mozaic 5 is in development, targeting 50TB capacity, with qualification shipments in late 2027. HAMR exabyte crossover is expected by the end of 2026. The focus is on increasing capacity per unit rather than unit volume, leveraging technology to improve aerial density.
Second-generation HAMR enables continued growth, with third-generation drives with 50TB capacity expected by the end of next year. Technology innovations include laser, photonic circuitry and media improvements, with minimal impact on the bill of materials. Seagate's strategy is built on durable storage demand, technology leadership and disciplined execution. Rising AI-driven data creation is boosting demand for cost- and energy-efficient, high-capacity HDDs, while its Mozaic platform and HAMR technology strengthen its competitive position. Backed by build-to-order contracts, pricing discipline and long-term supply agreements, Seagate is improving margin visibility and profitability.
Strong hyperscaler investment and sustained nearline storage demand have prompted the company to raise its annual revenue growth outlook to at least 20%, with capacity largely committed through 2027. Seagate's disciplined pricing strategy, supported by build-to-order contracts, provides greater revenue visibility and margin stability. Strong year-over-year and sequential price increases reflect robust demand, while most pricing for fiscal 2027 is already locked in with a significant portion of capacity allocated over the next four quarters. This approach is expected to support sequential revenue and profit growth throughout fiscal 2027, with management anticipating stable pricing trends rather than further acceleration.
Seagate's margins continue to outperform expectations, driven by strong demand, a favorable product mix and technology-led cost efficiencies. Incremental gross margins have exceeded the company's 50% target, supported by higher-capacity drives, improved yields and greater production efficiency. Management expects further margin expansion as Mozaic 5 and other technology advancements enhance cost and performance.
Strong Cash Returns Enhance the Investment Case
Consistent free cash flow generation strengthens Seagate's balance sheet and provides flexibility for future investments. Seagate also rewards shareholders through dividends. The company has maintained an attractive dividend policy while continuing to invest in product innovation. For income-focused investors, this provides an additional layer of return beyond potential share-price appreciation.
Seagate is using its strong cash flow to reduce debt while returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. After retiring $641 million in debt last quarter, the company plans to reduce its remaining convertible notes further, expand buybacks and continue investing in growth, reinforcing its commitment to long-term shareholder value. It will maintain capital discipline while continuing the transition and ramp-up of HAMR technology, with fiscal 2026 capital spending expected to remain within its target range of 4–6% of revenue.
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However, investors should remain aware of several risks. The HDD industry remains cyclical, making shipments vulnerable to customer inventory corrections, slower enterprise spending and weaker PC demand. Declining SSD prices could also intensify competition, although HDDs continue to offer a significant cost advantage for exabyte-scale storage. Additionally, Seagate's reliance on large hyperscale cloud customers means changes in their purchasing schedules can lead to quarter-to-quarter revenue volatility.
Positive Estimate Revision Trend for STX
STX is currently witnessing an uptrend in estimate revisions. Earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 have inched up 0.3% to $14.93 over the past 60 days, while the same for fiscal 2027 has gone up 6.5% to $28.05.
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Valuation Vulnerabilities
Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 30.54 forward earnings compared with 13.5 for the industry.
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In comparison, the forward 12-month price/earnings multiple for IBM, MU and WDC are 23.35X, 6.73X and 29.54X, respectively.
Is More Upside Ahead for STX Stock?
Seagate's growth outlook is driven by several long-term catalysts, including sustained AI infrastructure spending, broader adoption of HAMR technology, increasing enterprise data storage needs and continued expansion of cloud data centers. Improving storage pricing, robust free cash flow and ongoing margin expansion could further boost earnings. Successful execution of its technology roadmap would strengthen Seagate's leadership in enterprise storage and support additional upside over the long term.
For investors who believe AI-driven data creation will continue accelerating over the next decade, Seagate remains an attractive way to gain exposure to one of the essential segments of the AI supply chain. While short-term pullbacks are always possible after such a strong run, the company's technological prowess, improving profitability and exposure to one of the fastest-growing technology trends suggest there could still be further upside over the long term.
Boasting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) currently, STX is a portfolio must-have. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).