Thursday, July 16th, 2026
Pre-market futures were mixed ahead of this morning’s group of economic reports — all of which were as good, or better, than expected. This follows gains across the board of major indexes Wednesday, from +0.3% on the blue-chip Dow to +0.6% on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. This morning, the S&P 500 has remained consistent, -40 points, and the Nasdaq has given back -320, but the Dow moved from +40 points after jobless claims, retail sales and Philly manufacturing data to -10 points currently.
Retail Sales Cool, as Expected, in June
June Retail Sales reported in-line with expectations this morning, +0.2%, down from an upwardly revised +1.0% the previous month. Strip out big-ticket auto sales and this number flips to -0.2%, but back up to an in-line +0.4% when we subtract autos & gasoline sales. The Control number, which brings monthly retail tallies to overall monthly GDP, came in at a perfectly reasonable +0.5%, even if it is down -30 basis points (bps) from the May number.
This headline pulls back from the average +1.0% in Retail Sales growth over the past four months, which is the strongest such run in four years. While June did see some relief at the gas pump in terms of pricing, the cumulative weight of inflation did appear under the hood in today’s report: gas station sales came in lower month over month but +20% year over year. Health and personal care sales dropped -0.8% in June.
Weekly Jobless Claims Remain In-Range: +208K, +1.805M
Welcome lower numbers on weekly jobless claims also greeted us this Thursday morning, with Initial Claims dipping -10K from expectations to +208K, following a slight upward revision the prior week to +216K. Continuing Claims, reported a week in arrears from new claims, shrank to +1.805 million from an upwardly revised +1.821 million from the week earlier.
Jobless claims have remained remarkably consistent over the past year or so, especially on the longer-term side. While we’ve now spent the past five weeks above 1.8 million, this is still an historically very low number. Initial claims reached their lowest level since +199K reported in early May, but have bandied about the 210K level nearly every week of 2026 so far.
Philly Fed Rockets to Highest Since Great Reopening
Regional manufacturing survey Philly Fed this morning brought forth July numbers, with the headline coming in roughly 4x higher than expectations at 41.4. This is the strongest month for business for the region stretching from central Pennsylvania to New Jersey and Delaware since November of 2021, when the country was recovering from the Covid shutdown with the Great Reopening. It’s also the fastest expansion since January of 2025.
Massive data-center build-outs back up these results, from the Amazon Web Services (AWS) tech campus taking over the former U.S. Steel plant and DataOne expending its facilities at Vineland in Cumberland County, NJ. More data center plans are making their way through state legislatures, though some pushback has been experienced on environmental concerns.
Q2 Earnings Parade Continues: TSM, UNH, GE & More
The spigot is not fully open for Q2 earnings season quite yet, but the stream of companies reporting results is increasing, and expending beyond big finance corporations and major airlines. Taiwan Semiconductor TSM posted a +11.4% positive earnings surprise at $4.31 per share, though steeper capex initiatives are helping investors move the share price -4% lower in today’s pre-market.
UnitedHealthcare UNH blasted the Zacks consensus on earnings in its Q2 this morning, with $6.38 per share skyrocketing past the $4.98 anticipated, for a +29% positive earnings surprise. Share are up over +7% on the news this morning, as the major health insurer cuts costs and expands its earnings guidance.
GE Aerospace GE posted earnings of $2.02 per share this morning, an +8.6% positive surprise over the $1.86 projected. Investors are selling the news, however, as the impressive order growth of previous quarters has shown signs of cooling. GE shares are down -4% ahead of the open.
U.S. Bancorp USB shares had been up +4.6% this morning after a healthy earnings beat in its Q2 report ahead of the open: $1.35 per share versus expectations for $1.28. Lending revenue numbers were up in the quarter, but shares have flattened ahead of the opening bell.
After today’s close, Netflix NFLX posts quarterly numbers that are expected to have increased +9.7% year over year on +13.5% in revenues. The leader in streaming entertainment has missed earnings estimates twice in the past four quarters, including a -7.9% miss in Q1 2026.
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