Sequential Growth in AUM Balance Likely to Aid Invesco's Q2 Earnings

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Sequential Growth in AUM Balance Likely to Aid Invesco's Q2 Earnings

Invesco IVZ is scheduled to announce second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, before market open. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have witnessed a rise on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, IVZ’s adjusted earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The results primarily benefited from an increase in adjusted revenues and growth in assets under management (AUM) balance. However, an increase in adjusted expenses was a headwind.

Invesco does not have an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 7.9%.

Invesco Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Invesco Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Invesco Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Invesco Ltd. Quote

Invesco’s Key Q2 Estimates & Factors to Note

Per the monthly metrics data published by Invesco, its preliminary total AUM as of June 30, 2026, was $2.47 trillion, up 14.4% from the previous quarter’s end. So, the company’s investment management fees are expected to have been positively impacted in the quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment management fees is pegged at $1.48 billion, indicating a rise of 6.8% from the previous quarter.

The consensus estimate for service and distribution fees of $323 million indicates a rise of 7% from the previous quarter’s reported number. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for other revenues is pegged at $63 million, suggesting a 28% sequential increase.

However, the company’s performance fee is expected to have declined sequentially because the previous quarter benefited from relatively stronger realizations in performance-fee-eligible strategies, particularly in private markets, fundamental fixed income and multi-asset products. In the to-be-reported quarter, performance fees are likely to have normalized to a lower level, reflecting the inherently lumpy nature of these revenues and the absence of any indication of unusually large performance-fee realizations during the quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter performance fees of $6.02 million indicates a 46.7% decline from the previous quarter’s actual.

On the cost front, while Invesco’s cost-saving initiatives are likely to have boosted its efficiency, the rise in compensation and marketing costs is expected to have had an adverse impact on overall expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.

Management expects one-time implementation costs of Alpha to be $10-$15 million in the second quarter of 2026.

Major Q2 Development for Invesco

In June, Invesco completed the transfer of its Canadian fund management business to CI Global Asset Management (CI GAM), marking the close of a deal that significantly reshapes the Canadian investment fund landscape.

The transaction, announced in January, involved management agreements tied to Invesco’s Canadian fund lineup, which oversees approximately C$27 billion in assets. Now, CI GAM has assumed management responsibilities for 98 mutual funds and ETFs that were previously operated by Invesco Canada.

Although management of the funds has shifted to CI GAM, Invesco will continue to play an important role through a long-term strategic partnership between the two firms. Under a sub-advisory arrangement, Invesco affiliates will keep providing portfolio management services for 61 funds representing roughly C$13 billion in assets.

What Our Model Predicts for IVZ

According to our proven model, the chances of Invesco beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Invesco is +0.08%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Invesco’s Q2 Earnings & Sales Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Invesco’s earnings of 67 cents per share has been unchanged over the past seven days. However, the figure indicates a rise of 86.1% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. 

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $1.33 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 20.1%.

Other Finance Stocks Worth Considering

Here are a couple of other finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:

Prosperity Bancshares PB is scheduled to report quarterly results on July 29. The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.76% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PB’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.54.

The Earnings ESP for Affiliated Managers Group AMG is +1.86% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is slated to report quarterly results on July 30.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMG’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $7.85.

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Invesco Ltd. (IVZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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