Alaska Air Group ALK is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 20, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALK’s third-quarter 2026 earnings per share has been revised downward by 51.4% in the past 60 days to 35 cents. The consensus mark implies a 66.7% decline from the year-ago actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALK’s third-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $4.31 billion, indicating 14.5% growth year over year.
ALK has a mixed earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missing twice in the remaining two, delivering an average beat of 71.6%
Alaska Air Group Price and EPS Surprise
Alaska Air Group price-eps-surprise | Alaska Air Group Quote
Factors Likely to Have Influenced ALK’s Q3 Performance
We expect ALK's performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in total revenues, driven by high passenger revenues, as domestic air-travel demand stabilizes.
Strong passenger traffic despite high fuel costs is likely to have supported top-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter. Our model projects passenger revenues to increase 10.2% year over year in the third quarter of 2026. Additionally, we estimate cargo and other revenues at $284.13 million, representing a 100.2% increase from the prior-year period.
On the contrary, geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures and persistent inflation are likely to have weighed on ALK’s operations. These headwinds might have caused volatility in passenger traffic and, in turn, limited the airline’s ability to maintain strong yields and consistent revenue growth.
What Our Model Says About ALK
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ALK this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
ALK has an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Highlights of ALK’s Q2 Earnings
Alaska Air Group reported a second-quarter 2026 adjusted loss of 92 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 97-cent loss, with an average surprise of 5.2%. The company had posted adjusted earnings of $1.78 per share a year earlier.
Operating revenues increased 9.7% year over year to $4.07 billion but missed the consensus mark of $4.10 billion. Revenue per available seat mile rose 8.6%, while an 85% increase in economic fuel cost weighed heavily on profitability.
Passenger revenues increased 9% year over year to $3.64 billion. Loyalty program other revenues climbed 23% to $258 million, while cargo and other revenues advanced 17% to $163 million, reflecting strength across the company’s diversified revenue streams.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Old Dominion Freight Line ODFL has an Earnings ESP of +0.46% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ODFL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 0.63% over the past 60 days. ODFL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, with the average beat being 6.71%.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide CHRW has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. CHRW is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 28.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 3.6% to $1.71 per share over the past 60 days. CHRW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and met the mark on the other occasion. The average beat is 8.11%.
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Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK): Free Stock Analysis Report
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW): Free Stock Analysis Report
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).