Sitting on the 0.618 ahead of US CPI**
**H1 view:** Gold failed again at the 4148 high and printed a lower high near 4128. Price then broke the rising trendline and is now sitting right on the **0.618 Fibonacci (4074.71)**. The bias has turned slightly bearish, but the next move will be decided by today's CPI.
Fibonacci of the last bullish leg (4028.51 → 4148.15):
- 0.236 → 4119.92
- 0.382 → 4102.45
- 0.500 → 4088.33
- 0.618 → 4074.71
- 0.786 → 4054.11
**Main event – US CPI (13:30 GMT):**
- Headline forecast: 0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y (previous 0.6% / 3.7%)
- Core forecast: 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y
A hot number boosts Fed hike bets and pressures gold. A soft number gives gold room to bounce. **No entries before the release.**
**Plan A – SELL (hot CPI):**
- Trigger: H1 close below 4054 (0.786)
- Entry: 4050
- SL: 4070
- TP1: 4028
- TP2: 4000
**Plan B – BUY (soft CPI):**
- Trigger: H1 close back above 4088 (0.500)
- Entry: 4090
- SL: 4070
- TP1: 4120
- TP2: 4148
Between 4054 and 4088 there is no trade. I'll wait for the market to choose a side.
Not financial advice – manage your risk.
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