SOUTHERN CO quarterly report, Q3 FY2014

Southern Company 2014 Q3 Form 10-Q

Business context and period. This combined, unaudited filing covers The Southern Company and its subsidiaries Alabama Power, Georgia Power, Gulf Power, Mississippi Power, and Southern Power. The quarter and nine-month periods ended September 30, 2014; the report was signed November 6, 2014. The traditional utilities provide regulated electric service across four Southeastern states, while Southern Power sells wholesale generation, including renewable power.

Key financial results

Southern Company, consolidatedQ3 2014Q3 2013Nine months 2014Nine months 2013
Operating revenue$5.339 billion$5.017 billion$14.450 billion$13.160 billion
Operating income$1.278 billion$1.491 billion$3.081 billion$2.456 billion
Net income after subsidiary preferred dividends$718 million$852 million$1.680 billion$1.230 billion
Diluted EPS$0.80$0.97$1.87$1.40
  • Revenue and earnings: Q3 revenue rose 6.4%, but net income after preferred dividends fell 15.7%; nine-month revenue increased 9.8% and net income rose 36.6%. Quarterly operating margin was about 23.9% versus 29.7% a year earlier; nine-month operating margin was about 21.3% versus 18.7%.
  • Drivers: Retail revenue increased 5.5% in Q3 and 8.4% year to date, reflecting rate increases, weather, sales, and fuel-cost recovery. Wholesale revenue rose 15.4% and 22.3%, respectively, largely from Southern Power contracts and sales. Fuel and purchased-power cost increases are generally recovered through regulated mechanisms and typically do not materially affect earnings.
  • Cash flow: Nine-month operating cash flow was $4.687 billion, versus $4.411 billion; investing cash use was $4.157 billion, versus $4.102 billion, including $3.903 billion of property additions. Financing provided $225 million, compared with $255 million of cash use in 2013. Cash ended the period at $1.414 billion, up from $659 million at year-end 2013.
  • Debt and liquidity: At September 30, long-term debt was $21.699 billion; current securities due within a year were $2.398 billion and notes payable were $361 million. Current assets of $6.258 billion were below current liabilities of $6.890 billion, reflecting seasonality and near-term debt maturities. The company reported $5.203 billion of committed bank credit arrangements, of which $5.188 billion was unused; management said it remained in compliance with covenants and described its financial condition as stable.
  • Shareholder returns: Q3 common dividend was $0.525 per share, up from $0.5075. Nine-month common dividends paid were $1.391 billion.

Material changes and major projects

  • Kemper IGCC: The project’s escalating cost estimate was the central earnings and execution issue. Southern recorded a $418 million pre-tax charge in Q3 2014, versus $150 million in Q3 2013; nine-month charges were $798 million, versus $1.140 billion. Cumulative charges through September 30, 2014 were $1.98 billion pre-tax ($1.22 billion after tax). The Q3 charge reduced consolidated net income by approximately $258 million after tax.
  • The updated project estimate was approximately $6.10 billion in total, including $4.86 billion for costs subject to the cap, net of DOE grants and excluding specified exceptions; the Mississippi PSC cap is $2.88 billion on that basis. Actual total costs incurred at September 30 were $4.97 billion. Mississippi Power said it did not intend to seek recovery or joint-owner contributions for costs above the cap, subject to specified exceptions and regulatory determinations.
  • The combined-cycle and associated facilities entered service on natural gas August 9, 2014. The remaining gasifier and gas-cleanup facilities were expected in service in the first half of 2016. The estimate included costs through March 31, 2016; a further delay was estimated to add $20 million to $30 million per month. The company expected about $0.8 billion in additional non-recoverable cash expenditures through completion, after $1.18 billion incurred through September 30.
  • Vogtle Units 3 and 4: Georgia Power owns 45.7%. The estimated in-service dates were Q4 2017 and Q4 2018 for Units 3 and 4, respectively; estimated construction-period financing costs were approximately $2.0 billion. Georgia Power had borrowed $1.0 billion under the DOE-guaranteed FFB facility, with $1.0 billion of stated borrowing availability. Contractor claims over design changes and schedule impacts remained in litigation; project execution and cost recovery remained uncertain.
  • Southern Power growth: The company acquired operating 20-MW Adobe and 50-MW Macho Springs solar facilities in 2014. A subsequent-quarter acquisition related to the approximately 150-MW Imperial solar facility was expected to bring Southern Power’s purchase price to about $508 million. New solar revenues supported wholesale growth, while added depreciation and lower capitalized interest contributed to lower Southern Power earnings.

Outlook, risks, and unusual items

  • Management provided no consolidated earnings guidance in the supplied filing text. It estimated system construction spending of $7.2 billion for 2014, $5.8 billion for 2015, and $4.4 billion for 2016; these estimates are subject to revision and do not assure full cost recovery.
  • Kemper cost, schedule, operational readiness, tax-credit eligibility, securitization, and rate recovery remained subject to substantial uncertainty and Mississippi PSC prudence review. The Seven-Year Rate Plan remained under review; proposed revisions were estimated to increase average annual retail revenue requirements by $60 million to $70 million through 2020, with rate-mitigation measures subject to approval.
  • Mississippi Power had approximately $812 million of debt maturities due through September 30, 2015 and current liabilities exceeding current assets by about $1 billion. It expected to rely on Southern Company equity contributions or loans, cash, and credit markets. The parent reported approximately $2.4 billion of debt maturities through September 30, 2015.
  • Other material exposures included potential Vogtle contractor claims; environmental rules and compliance costs, including the proposed Clean Power Plan and CSAPR implementation; fuel prices, weather, demand, and regulatory cost recovery; and possible collateral requirements following credit-rating downgrades. The filing said the ultimate impact of proposed environmental requirements could not yet be determined.
  • Mississippi Power’s Sierra Club settlement required $15 million of grants over 15 years and a $2 million conservation-fund contribution; $7 million was paid and expensed in Q3. It also committed Mississippi Power to specified coal-to-gas conversions and unit retirement or repowering. The filing reported a roughly $100 million unrecognized tax benefit related to Kemper research-and-experimental deductions under IRS review.
  • Georgia Power filed proposed January 2015 tariff increases, including about $107 million in base tariffs and $27 million in the Vogtle construction recovery tariff, subject to approval. Gulf Power’s approved 2015 cost-recovery clause changes were expected to raise annual revenue by $41.2 million, largely offset by expenses.

Most important facts for investors to verify

  • Whether Kemper’s remaining construction and start-up meet the first-half 2016 target, and whether the estimate, cost-cap exceptions, and non-recoverable cash burden change.
  • The Mississippi PSC’s prudence review, Seven-Year Rate Plan and securitization decisions, and completion of SMEPA’s proposed 15% project purchase.
  • Vogtle schedule and cost progress, contractor claims and their potential Georgia Power share, and future financing needs.
  • Actual recovery and timing of rate increases, fuel-cost balances, and environmental compliance costs under changing regulations.
  • Near-term debt maturities, access to credit and capital markets, and the sustainability of cash flow and dividend payments amid the construction program.