Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Iamgold?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Iamgold (IAG) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.55 a share, just 14 days from its upcoming earnings release on May 5, 2026.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.55 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.52 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Iamgold has an Earnings ESP of +6.80%. Investors should also know that IAG is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
IAG is one of just a large database of Basic Materials stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Newmont Corporation (NEM).
Slated to report earnings on April 23, 2026, Newmont Corporation holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $2.09 a share two days from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Newmont Corporation is $2.07, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +1.16%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, IAG and NEM could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in Iamgold Corporation (IAG)?
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Iamgold Corporation (IAG): Free Stock Analysis Report
Newmont Corporation (NEM): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).