A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Smucker (SJM). Shares have lost about 4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Smucker due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Smucker Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Miss on Volume Dip
The J. M. Smucker reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results. Adjusted earnings were $2.77 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65. Earnings increased 20% from the prior-year quarter, driven by higher pricing, increased adjusted gross profit, favorable SD&A expenses and lower interest expense.
Net sales were $2,268.1 million, up 6% year over year. However, the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,271 million. Comparable net sales, excluding prior-year divestiture-related sales and favorable foreign currency exchange, increased 6%. Comparable net sales growth reflected a 10-percentage-point benefit from net price realization, mainly driven by higher pricing for coffee and sweet baked goods. This was partly offset by a 4-percentage-point decline in volume/mix, primarily due to decreases in coffee and sweet baked goods, partially mitigated by growth in Uncrustables sandwiches.
Adjusted gross profit increased 4% year over year to $835.3 million. The upside reflected higher net price realization, partially offset by increased costs, including commodity costs and tariffs, along with unfavorable volume/mix. The company incurred approximately $23 million in tariff expenses in the quarter, mainly impacting the U.S. Retail Coffee segment.
Adjusted operating income rose 14% to $482.1 million, reflecting increased adjusted gross profit and favorable SD&A expenses. Lower marketing spend and distribution costs more than offset higher general and administrative expenses.
Decoding SJM’s Q4 Segmental Performance
U.S. Retail Coffee: Net sales increased 12% to $830.6 million, driven by higher pricing across the portfolio. Net price realization contributed 21 percentage points, while volume/mix declined 8 percentage points due to decreases in Dunkin’ and Folgers, partly offset by growth in Café Bustelo. Segment profit increased 1% to $214 million, as pricing gains and lower marketing spend mostly offset higher costs, including commodity costs and tariffs, and unfavorable volume/mix.
U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads: Net sales rose 1% to $454.1 million. Net price realization added 2 percentage points, led by higher pricing for Uncrustables sandwiches and lower trade spend for Jif peanut butter. Volume/mix declined 2 percentage points, reflecting lower sales of Jif peanut butter and Smucker’s fruit spreads, partly offset by growth in Uncrustables. Segment profit surged 37% to $124.7 million, aided by lower marketing spend, higher pricing, lower costs, lapping equipment write-off charges and lower pre-production expenses tied to the new Uncrustables manufacturing facility.
U.S. Retail Pet Foods: Net sales increased 2% to $401.7 million. Pricing contributed 3 percentage points, driven by cat food and dog snacks, while volume/mix declined 2 percentage points due to weakness in dog snacks and the lapping of contract manufacturing sales related to divested pet food brands. Segment profit advanced 18% to $125.7 million, supported by higher pricing and lower marketing spend.
Sweet Baked Snacks: Net sales decreased 5% to $237.2 million. Excluding noncomparable sales related to the divestiture of certain Sweet Baked Snacks value brands, net sales declined 4%. Volume/mix reduced sales by 12 percentage points, mainly due to softness in snack cakes and breakfast products, partly offset by growth in donuts. Higher pricing contributed 8 percentage points. Segment profit rose 45% to $29 million, reflecting higher pricing and lower marketing expenses, partly offset by unfavorable volume/mix and higher costs. Management noted that the segment’s fourth-quarter sales exceeded expectations, aided by a faster-than-anticipated return to production following the February fire at its Emporia, KS, facility. Hostess Donettes grew net sales 13% in the quarter.
Away From Home: Net sales increased 15% to $228.3 million. Excluding favorable currency movements, sales rose 14%. Net price realization added 8 percentage points, mainly due to higher coffee pricing, while volume/mix contributed 6 percentage points, driven by increases in Uncrustables sandwiches, fruit spreads and coffee. Segment profit climbed 21% to $55.3 million, benefiting from higher pricing and favorable volume/mix, partly offset by higher costs. The company also began presenting Away From Home as a reportable segment, reflecting the business’s increased scale and strength.
SJM’s Financial Health Snapshot & Guidance
The company ended fiscal 2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $58.6 million and long-term debt, excluding the current portion, of roughly $6.4 billion. Total shareholders’ equity was $5.5 billion. Cash provided by operating activities totaled $579.2 million in the quarter. Free cash flow was $483.9 million. For fiscal 2026, free cash flow totaled about $1.16 billion. The company returned $464.7 million to shareholders through dividends and repaid $720 million of debt during the year.
Smucker issued its fiscal 2027 outlook. The company expects net sales to decline 3% to 4% year over year, primarily due to lower net price realization and unfavorable volume/mix. Management noted that the sales decline mainly reflects expectations for green coffee deflation, as the company plans to pass lower costs to consumers through pricing.
Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the band of $9.75-$10.25, implying year-over-year growth of 7-12%. The guidance assumes an adjusted gross profit margin of approximately 38%, SD&A expenses rising about 5%, net interest expense of nearly $345 million, an adjusted effective tax rate of 24.3% and weighted-average shares outstanding of 107 million.
Free cash flow is projected to be approximately $1 billion, with capital expenditures of $325 million. Management expects to pay down about $500 million of debt in fiscal 2027 and move toward a leverage ratio of around 3.0 net debt to adjusted EBITDA by the end of the fiscal year. The company expects volume/mix growth across its key platforms — Uncrustables, Cafe Bustelo, Meow Mix and Milk-Bone — in fiscal 2027.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.
VGM Scores
At this time, Smucker has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Smucker has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).