BlackRock BLK is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 14, before the opening bell. Its quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have improved year over year.
BLK’s second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited from a rise in revenues. The assets under management (AUM) balance witnessed growth to record levels, driven mainly by net inflows and AUM additions from the HPS and ElmTree transactions. However, higher expenses created a headwind.
BlackRock has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 7.3%.
BlackRock Price and EPS Surprise
BlackRock price-eps-surprise | BlackRock Quote
Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts for the to-be-reported quarter, let us check the factors that are likely to have impacted BlackRock’s performance.
Key Factors & Q3 Estimates for BLK
AUM: BlackRock’s AUM is expected to have benefited from equity market appreciation during the third quarter, supported by continued investor interest in artificial intelligence (AI)-related companies and relatively resilient global equity markets. However, intermittent market volatility and uncertainties surrounding interest rates and geopolitical developments may have moderated gains in certain asset classes.
The company’s industry-leading iShares exchange-traded fund (ETF) franchise is likely to have continued attracting healthy inflows, supported by sustained investor demand for low-cost, diversified investment products. Continued demand for fixed-income ETFs, active investment strategies and cash-management solutions is also expected to have supported organic AUM growth.
Additionally, BlackRock’s expanding private-markets platform may have contributed to asset growth, although the timing of institutional allocations and fundraising activity could have influenced quarterly flows.
Nevertheless, fluctuations in foreign-exchange rates, market volatility and institutional portfolio rebalancing may have affected overall AUM growth to some extent.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLK’s total AUM for the third quarter is pegged at $15.67 trillion, indicating a year-over-year jump of 16.4%.
Revenue Components: BlackRock is expected to have recorded growth in its investment advisory, administration fees and securities-lending revenues on decent inflows and latest offerings. The consensus estimate for the metric is $6.02 billion, implying a 19.2% year-over-year rise.
The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $415 million indicates a year-over-year rise of 16.9%. The consensus estimate for technology services revenues is pegged at $583 million, implying a 13.2% rally.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for advisory and other revenues is pegged at $85 million, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 10.4%.
However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment advisory performance fees is pegged at $412 million, suggesting a 20.2% year-over-year decline.
Expenses: BlackRock’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. Overall costs are expected to have increased in the third quarter, given that the company has been continuing its restructuring initiatives to modify the size and shape of its workforce and improve operating efficiency. Also, its inorganic expansion efforts are likely to have increased expenses.
What Our Model Unveils for BlackRock
According to our quantitative model, the chances of BLK beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BlackRock is -0.45%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLK’s third-quarter earnings of $14.04 per share has been revised lower over the past seven days. The estimate indicates a 21.6% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for quarterly sales is pegged at $7.45 billion, which suggests a year-over-year rise of 14.5%.
Finance Stocks Worth a Look
Here are a couple of finance stocks, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases:
State Street STT is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 14. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.58% at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for State Street have been revised upward to $3.64 over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. PB is +0.22% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PB’s quarterly earnings has been revised lower to $1.63 per share.
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BlackRock (BLK): Free Stock Analysis Report
State Street Corporation (STT): Free Stock Analysis Report
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).