Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Xcel Energy?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Xcel Energy (XEL) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.35 a share, just 16 days from its upcoming earnings release on October 29, 2026.
By taking the percentage difference between the $1.35 Most Accurate Estimate and the $1.33 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Xcel Energy has an Earnings ESP of +1.50%. Investors should also know that XEL is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
XEL is just one of a large group of Utilities stocks with a positive ESP figure. Entergy (ETR) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Entergy, which is readying to report earnings on November 4, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.71 a share, and ETR is 22 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Entergy is $1.64, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +4.59%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, XEL and ETR could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)?
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Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL): Free Stock Analysis Report
Entergy Corporation (ETR): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).