T. Rowe Price Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. TROW is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 04, 2026, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have increased from the year-ago reported levels.

In the last reported quarter, TROW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company's results benefited from higher assets under management (AUM). A rise in investment advisory fees and capital allocation-based income was also encouraging. However, higher expenses acted as a spoilsport.

T. Rowe Price’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 4.04%.

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Quote

Key Factors & Estimates for TROW in Q4

In the October–December quarter, the S&P 500 Index gained nearly 3.1%, signaling moderate market performance. The fixed-income market continued to witness positive flow trends, supported by stable returns across funds. Further, the equity markets' performance remained relatively stable during the quarter, with increased market activity and investor participation offering some support. As a result, TROW's performance for the December quarter is likely to have benefited from steady fixed-income inflows and stable equity market returns.

Amid the challenging operating environment, T. Rowe Price is likely to have continued to record net outflows in the fourth quarter. Per the company’s monthly metrics data, its net outflows were $11.6 billion for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025.

The company’s preliminary AUM of $1.78 trillion as of Dec. 31, 2025, rose marginally from Sept. 30, 2025. The rise was driven by improved performance in fixed income (including money market), multi-asset and alternative products.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM is pegged at $1.78 trillion, indicating a marginal sequential increase.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment advisory fees is pegged at $1.72 billion, suggesting an increase of 1.4% on a sequential basis.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for administrative, distribution and servicing fees of $152.3 million implies an increase of 4.1% from the prior quarter’s actual.

Coming to expenses, T. Rowe Price continues to incur significant expenditures to attract new investment advisory clients and additional investments from existing clients. The company is also investing heavily in technology, distribution and employee compensation to keep pace with evolving customer needs and strengthen its platform. This is expected to have increased its expenses in the quarter to be reported. However, the company's cost management efforts are likely to have offset the rise to some extent.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for TROW

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for TROW this time around. This is because the company does not have the right combination of the two key elements, a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold).

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.03%.

Zacks Rank: T. Rowe Price currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has remained unchanged at $2.46 per share over the past seven days, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 16%.

The consensus estimate for revenues of $1.92 billion implies a 5.1% rise from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

Performance of TROW's Peers

Invesco’s IVZ fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 62 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 57 cents. The bottom line increased 19.2% from the prior-year quarter.

The results of IVZ have been primarily aided by an increase in adjusted revenues. Moreover, growth in the assets under management reached record levels, supporting the results to an extent. However, an increase in adjusted operating expenses was a headwind.

SEI Investments Co.’s SEIC fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.38 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.34. Moreover, the bottom line reflected a rise of 16% from the prior-year quarter.

SEIC’s results were aided by higher revenues and a rise in assets under management. However, higher expenses acted as a spoilsport.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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