A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC). Shares have added about 3.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marriott Vacations Worldwide due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Marriott Vacations Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Miss
Marriott Vacations reported mixed results for its fourth quarter of 2025, with adjusted earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while revenues missed the same. Meanwhile, both metrics declined year over year.
In the fourth quarter, results at Marriott Vacations were supported by the strength of the company’s brands, high-quality resort portfolio and resilient recurring revenue base. Management noted that Adjusted EBITDA came in toward the high end of guidance, reflecting disciplined execution despite a challenging operating environment. Entering 2026, management is prioritizing profitability, cost discipline, capital allocation, inventory reduction and stronger cash flow generation while taking decisive actions to enhance long-term performance.
However, consolidated contract sales declined due to lower tour flow and a modest reduction in volume per guest, resulting in softer development profit and some margin compression during the quarter.
Q4 Earnings & Revenue Performance
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.86 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72 by 8.1%. In the year-ago quarter, it reported an adjusted EPS of $1.98.
Quarterly revenues of $1.323 billion missed the consensus mark of $1.325 billion by 0.1% and decreased 0.3% on a year-over-year basis.
Segment Highlights of VAC
Vacation Ownership: Revenues (excluding cost reimbursements) declined 3% year over year to $792 million. Consolidated contract sales were $458 million, down 4% year over year, as both tours and VPG declined 3% and 1%, respectively. Segment adjusted EBITDA decreased 1% to $221 million, with margin expanding 70 bps to 27.9%.
Exchange & Third-Party Management: Revenues declined 5% year over year to $47 million, reflecting lower Interval International revenues. Adjusted EBITDA fell 13% to $19 million, with margin contracting 380 bps to 40.6%.
Corporate and Other: Expenses rose $8 million compared to the prior-year quarter.
Q4 Margins & Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA fell 3% year over year to $186 million, translating to a 21.7% margin, which remained unchanged year over year.
Adjusted operating income fell to $95 million, marking a 10% decrease.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
The company ended the fourth quarter with $1.4 billion in liquidity, comprising $406 million of cash and equivalents and $787 million in available credit.
Total inventory stood at $916 million, while debt included $3.5 billion in corporate debt and $2.1 billion in non-recourse securitized debt tied to vacation ownership notes receivable.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, the company completed its second securitization transaction of the year, issuing $470 million in vacation ownership notes. The transaction carried a gross advance rate of 98% and a blended interest rate of 4.62%.
VAC’s 2025 Highlights
Revenues for 2025 came in at $5.03 billion compared with $4.97 billion reported in 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA in 2025 came in at $751 million compared with $736 million reported in 2024.
In 2025, adjusted EPS came in at $7.16 compared with $6.72 reported in the previous year.
2026 Outlook Provided by VAC
For 2026, Marriott Vacations expects contract sales to range between $1,745 million and $1,815 million, while adjusted EBITDA is projected to be in the range of $755 million to $780 million.
Adjusted net income is anticipated to come in between $255 million and $285 million, with adjusted diluted earnings per share estimated at $7.05 to $7.80. The company also expects to generate adjusted free cash flow in the range of $375 million to $425 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 7.27% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Marriott Vacations Worldwide has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Marriott Vacations Worldwide has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Marriott Vacations Worldwide belongs to the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry. Another stock from the same industry, Expedia (EXPE), has gained 6.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.
Expedia reported revenues of $3.55 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +11.4%. EPS of $3.78 for the same period compares with $2.39 a year ago.
Expedia is expected to post earnings of $1.31 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +227.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
Expedia has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).