Northern Trust Corporation NTRS is scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 21, 2026, before market open. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have increased year over year.
In the last reported quarter, the bank delivered an earnings surprise. NTRS results benefited from a rise in net interest income (NII). Also, an increase in total assets under custody and assets under management balances supported the financials. However, elevated expenses were concerning.
Northern Trust has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 4.98%.
Northern Trust Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Northern Trust Corporation price-eps-surprise | Northern Trust Corporation Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTRS’ first-quarter earnings has been revised upward over the past week to $2.37 per share. The figure indicates a 24.7% increase from the year-ago reported number.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.13 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 9.9%.
Key Factors & Estimates for NTRS’ Q1 Results
NII & Loans: In the first quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. This is likely to have supported NTRS’ NII in the quarter, given stabilizing funding/deposit costs.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $625 million for the to-be-reported quarter, indicating a 10% rise on a year-over-year basis.
Also, per the Fed’s latest data, the overall lending scenario remained decent in the first quarter. Thus, NTRS is likely to have witnessed growth in loan demand, which is expected to have supported its average interest-earning asset growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average earning assets is pegged at $145.8 billion, indicating a 5.7% rise from the prior-year quarter.
Non-Interest Income: Northern Trust calculates its asset servicing and wealth management servicing fees using a lag effect, relying on prior-quarter end valuations for these computations. Asset servicing fees comprise custody and fund administration, investment management, securities lending and other fees.
Volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange in the first quarter of 2026. As such, NTRS is likely to have witnessed growth in custody and fund administration revenues, as well as its investment management fees.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for custody and fund administration fees is pegged at $495.1 million, indicating a 9.2% rise on a year-over-year basis.
The consensus estimate for investment management fees is pegged at $164 million, implying a 7.5% rise from the year-ago quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total wealth management fees is pegged at $574.9 million, indicating a 6.1% rise from the year-earlier quarter.
For the first quarter of 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for other operating income is pegged at $58.6 million, indicating a 15.6% rise on a year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fee income is pegged at $1.51 billion, suggesting a 9.7% increase from the prior-year quarter.
Expenses: The company’s expenses are expected to have remained elevated in the first quarter due to higher compensation costs and continued investments in equipment and software to modernize its technology infrastructure and strengthen operational resiliency.
Asset Quality: We expect the company to have maintained a relatively high reserve in the first quarter, particularly against potential credit risks, amid a challenging operating backdrop marked by the Middle East conflict and persistent inflation, which could pressure consumer demand and lead to higher delinquencies.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets in the first quarter is pegged at $75.9 million, indicating a 3.8% rise on a year-over-year basis.
What the Zacks Model Reveals for NTRS
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Northern Trust this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you can see below.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for NTRS is 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
The Earnings ESP for Popular, Inc. BPOP is +3.78% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 23, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for BPOP's quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $3.30 per share. The figure indicates a 29.3% increase from the year-ago reported number.
BOK Financial BOKF is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 20, 2026. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.22% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for BOKF have also remained unchanged at $2.30 per share over the past week, indicating a year-over-year rise of 23.7%.
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Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS): Free Stock Analysis Report
BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF): Free Stock Analysis Report
Popular, Inc. (BPOP): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).