The Boston Beer Company, Inc. SAM is likely to register decline in its top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2026 results.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $437.4 million, implying a 9.1% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings has been stable in the past 30 days at $1.85 per share. This implies a drop of 14.4% from the year-ago quarter.
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 9.01%. SAM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 55.8%, on average.
Factors Likely to Have Impacted SAM’s Q1 Results
Boston Beer’s first-quarter earnings are expected to have faced pressure from an uncertain macroeconomic environment, with inflation and weak consumer confidence pressuring discretionary spending. This has resulted in soft demand across the beer industry, reflecting a cautious consumer and reduced social activity. Also, structural shifts in consumer behavior are adding up to challenges. Trends such as moderation, growing health consciousness and the rising popularity of alternatives like cannabis-infused beverages are gradually reducing alcohol consumption. The impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and increased engagement in activities has been contributing to fewer drinking occasions.
Boston Beer has been witnessing weak depletions, with continued challenges in the hard seltzer category for a while. The hard seltzer segment remains under pressure, which has been weighing on Truly Hard Seltzer as it faces declining volumes and continued loss of shelf space. Intense competition across flavored malt beverages and tea-based drinks is further straining shelf space, as retailers streamline assortments and reduce the number of brands they carry.
In addition, tariffs are expected to act as deterrents, particularly through higher aluminum and imported material costs, while ongoing inflation continues to affect the input expenses. Boston Beer is seeing higher advertising and promotional spending to support brand recovery and product launches. All the aforesaid factors are likely to have pressured depletions, sales and profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.
On the flip side, Boston Beer’s focus on strategic pricing, product innovation and brand development to strengthen its market position appears encouraging. The company is expanding its presence in the Beyond Beer category, which continues to outpace the traditional beer market. Strong price realization and ongoing procurement savings are helping offset the inflationary and tariff pressures.
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. price-eps-surprise | The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Quote
What the Zacks Model Unveils for SAM Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Boston Beer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Boston Beer currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Valuation Picture of SAM Stock
From a valuation perspective, Boston Beer stock is trading at a premium relative to the industry benchmarks. The company has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 23.19X, above the Beverages - Alcohol industry’s average of 15.67X.
Boston Beer shares have gained 9% in the past six months versus the industry’s growth of 11.8%.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Keurig Dr Pepper KDP currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.27% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register growth in the top line when it reports first-quarter 2026 numbers. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $3.83 billion, which indicates a rise of 5.4% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Keurig Dr Pepper’s quarterly earnings per share of 36 cents implies a drop of 14.3% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark has been stable in the past 30 days. KDP has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.1%, on average.
Brown-Forman Corporation BF.B currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.61% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register growth in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 numbers. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $877 million, which indicates a drop of 1.9% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Brown-Forman’s quarterly earnings per share of 34 cents implies a rise of 9.7% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark has been stable in the past 30 days. BF.B has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.5%, on average.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. CELH currently has an Earnings ESP of +13.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CELH’s quarterly EPS is pegged at 29 cents, up 61.1% from the year-ago period. The consensus mark has been stable in the past 30 days.
The consensus estimate for Celsius’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $748.7 million, which implies an increase of 127.4% from the prior-year quarter. CELH has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 45.3%, on average.
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Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B): Free Stock Analysis Report
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM): Free Stock Analysis Report
Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH): Free Stock Analysis Report
Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc (KDP): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).