Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 4, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $2.98 billion, while the same for earnings is $4.20 per share.
Let’s see how things might have shaped up before the announcement.
Factors Likely to Influence VRTX's Q1 Results
Vertex’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have been driven by strong demand for blockbuster cystic fibrosis (“CF”) medicine, Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe), in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trikafta/Kaftrio sales is currently pegged at $2.40 billion.
However, higher Trikafta/Kaftrio sales are likely to have caused sales erosion of VRTX’s other CF drugs — Symdeko (marketed as Symkevi in Europe), Orkambi and Kalydeco.
Though Vertex’s CF franchise sales continue to grow, driven by demand growth of Trikafta/Kaftrio in younger age groups, we expect investors to focus on the sales performance of its fifth CF medicine, Alyftrek (vanza triple), during the first quarter.
Alyftrek sales increased sequentially in the last reported quarter, a trend most likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. Per management, the U.S. launch of Alyftrek is progressing well across all patient groups, while in ex-U.S. markets, the early launch of Alyftrek is off to a strong start in multiple European countries, where patients have reimbursed access.
Year to date, shares of Vertex have plunged 6.1% compared with the industry’s decline of 1.2%.
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VRTX’s Other New Products Sales Expectation for Q1
Vertex and its partner CRISPR Therapeutics’ CRSP one-shot gene therapy, Casgevy, was approved in late 2023/early 2024 for two blood disorders — sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.
Vertex leads the global development and commercialization of Casgevy under the terms of the 2021 agreement, with support from CRISPR Therapeutics.
Casgevy sales increased significantly on a sequential basis in the last quarter due to robust patient growth. Vertex is also making rapid progress in the drug’s access and reimbursement.
In 2026, Vertex expects significant growth in Casgevy’s sales as the therapy’s launch metrics look positive, with growing cell collections and product infusions. Investors will be keen to get more updates on the same on the upcoming earnings call.
VRTX’s novel non-opioid pain medicine Journavx (suzetrigine) was approved by the FDA in January 2025. Journavx’s sales improved sequentially in the last quarter, driven by strong prescription growth. Also, the drug’s launch metrics and early reimbursement progress look favorable. Vertex expects higher sales from Journavx in the first quarter as prescription volumes are rising.
Several updates related to Vertex’s pipeline candidates, which are in mid- to late-stage studies for treating diseases like acute and neuropathic pain, APOL1-mediated kidney disease, IgA nephropathy, primary membranous nephropathy, and cell therapy for type I diabetes, are also expected on the upcoming earnings call.
VRTX's Earnings Surprise History
Vertex has a mixed history of earnings surprises over the trailing four quarters. The company beat earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same on the remaining two occasions, delivering an average surprise of 1.88%. In the last reported quarter, VRTX posted a negative earnings surprise of 0.79%.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Quote
Earnings Whispers for VRTX Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vertex this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
VRTX’s Earnings ESP: Vertex’s Earnings ESP is -0.54% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $4.18, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.20.
VRTX’s Zacks Rank: Vertex currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Agenus AGEN has an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.
Shares of AGEN have risen 30.2% year to date. The company’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, while missing the mark on the other two occasions. Agenus delivered an average earnings surprise of 31.42%.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals INO has an Earnings ESP of +3.33% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Shares of INO have lost 32.8% year to date. The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. INO delivered an average earnings surprise of 57.94%.
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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX): Free Stock Analysis Report
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CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).