The big number so far in 2026’s first quarter of earnings is $650 billion, the amount Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META) have committed to spending on AI infrastructure in 2026.
That’s some serious coin. Whether these companies can get a sufficient return on that capital remains to be seen.
Can’t Get Enough Options?: Join the list for Barchart’s daily unusual options report, delivered free.
Saturday will mark the end of the ninth week of troubles in the Middle East. With no end in sight, the global travel industry has taken it on the chin due to higher oil prices and travel uncertainty.
In March, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimated that the Iran conflict is costing the travel and tourism industries in the Middle East approximately US$600 million per day in lost business.
That’s the kind of number that reaches all the way to the U.S., where companies such as Booking Holdings (BKNG) are likely seeing reduced bookings and website traffic.
Which is why Booking Holdings’ unusually active July 17 $160 call, with the highest Vol/OI (volume-to-open-interest) ratio in Wednesday’s trading, really stands out.
Here’s why.
The BKNG Unusually Active Call in Question
Booking Holdings’ options volume yesterday was 111,356, the highest daily total in the past three months, and 5.4 times higher than its 30-day average.
The July 17 $160 call was six strikes ITM (in-the-money) with one trade at 13:06:56 ET for 31,000 of the 31,045 contracts. The trade price of $21.30, a dollar off the ask price, suggests a big fish made a bullish bet.
I’ll get into the options strategy in a bit. For now, I just want to consider BKNG as a prospective stock to buy.
The Analysts are Bullish
Of the 38 analysts covering BKNG, 28 rate it a Buy (4.42 out of 5), with a $228.84 target price that is 34% above its current price. The stock is down over 20% year-to-date and 16% over the past 52 weeks.
Over the five years, BKNG has outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by a slim margin, 72.40% to 71.07%. At first, one might consider this mediocre performance. However, a Motley Fool article from mid-March said that the Magnificent 7, as a group, averaged an annualized return of 131.4% over the past five years, compared with 59.7% for the rest of the companies in the index.
It’s a bit of an awkward stat.
The table below shows the cumulative returns for BKNG, SPY and the Mag 7 over the past five years through today. As you can see, except for Nvidia, Alphabet, and Apple, Booking Holdings’ stock has held up quite well over the past five years.
| Stock | Cumulative 5-Year Return | +/- S&P 500 (SPY) |
| Booking Holdings (BKNG) | 72.40% | 1.33% |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | 1,245.30% | 1,174.23% |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | 220.20% | 149.13% |
| Apple (AAPL) | 106.26% | 35.19% |
| Meta Platforms (META) | 86.15% | 15.08% |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | 60.38% | -10.69% |
| Tesla (TSLA) | 59.35% | -11.72% |
| Amazon (AMZN) | 49.37% | -21.7% |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) | 71.07% | N/A |
The Pros and Cons of Owning Booking Holdings
The biggest obvious near-term concern about owning BKNG stock is not knowing how much longer global travel and tourism will be interrupted and what that means for its share price.
Just yesterday, BMO Capital lowered its price target to $240 from $248 previously. It has an Outperform rating on the stock. While Booking’s guidance for the second quarter was well below analyst expectations, it believes demand for global travel remains high and should recover in the second half of 2026.
So, if you don’t own BKNG but might like to, the question is whether the stock has hit bottom. Booking hit its 52-week low of $150.63 days before the onset of the Iran war.
In 2026, it’s expected to earn $10.44 a share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, rising to $12.29 in 2027, and $14.38 in 2028. It trades at a reasonable 13.7 times the 2027 estimate.
The financial metric that really stands out for Booking is its return on assets. In 2019, pre-COVID, it was 15.2%. In the 12 months ended March 31, its return on assets was 22.1%, 45% higher than the prior year.
The balance sheet is strong -- its total debt of $18.9 billion is just 14% of its market cap -- and its cash flow is rising.
It’s not hard to see the bullish case for owning BKNG.
The Option Strategy on Display
The 31,000 contracts traded yesterday on the July 17 $160 call were a multi-leg bet, most likely a Bull Call Spread.
The bull call spread is a bullish options strategy in which you expect BKNG to increase in value over the next 78 days. It involves buying a call option and selling a call option at a higher strike price.
In this case, with the July 17 $160 call ITM, you would take the long call and combine it with a short call above the current share price, both expiring at the same time.
Looking at today’s data as I write this around noon ET, I’m focused on a short call that provides a nice balance between maximum profit and risk/reward. Ideally, the risk/reward ratio is around 1.00, providing a reasonable balance of risk and reward.
Of the six, the $185 call has the highest likelihood of BKNG trading above the breakeven at expiration in mid-July. At 46.6%, it’s not a slam dunk by any means, but that strike also involves the lowest cash outlay at $12.40, or 7.3% of its share price.
Here’s how the profit and loss chart looks.
.
The numbers have changed slightly from previously, but the idea remains the same. If BKNG shares appreciate by 2.2% or more over the next 2.5 months, you’ll have made money, with your maximum profit at $185, 9.6% higher than where it trades currently.
With an expected move of 11.83%, it’s more than doable.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
Travel Is Struggling, But Unusual Options Activity Shows Someone Just Bet Big on Booking Holdings Stock Dozens of Experts Built This Simple Stock Screener for Traders & Investors. It Was Me. Kinder Morgan Stock Is Normally Boring, but the Iran War Just Created an Exciting Short-Term Trade in KMI These Low IV Stocks May Be Setting Up for an Explosive Move