Fast casual restaurant standout Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) stock has tanked 50% from its 2024 highs after a rough 2025 saw its same-store sales dip -1.7% YoY—its first drop in over 20 years.
Chipotle launched a turnaround plan earlier this year to win back more of its core customers, who are being hit hard by inflation and a difficult economic backdrop. It is also worth noting that CMG is coming off a massive stretch of top- and bottom-line growth that was always going to be difficult to compete against.
CMG is projected to expand its same-store sales in 2026 and post strong revenue growth in 2026 and 2027. Its earnings are projected to dip slightly this year, before bouncing back in a big way next year.
CMG is trying to find support at some key technical levels, and its average Zacks price target marks 34% upside from Wednesday’s levels. On top of that, Chipotle stock offers 100% upside if it returns to its peaks.
Best S&P 500 Stock to Buy Now for 100% Upside: CMG
Chipotle helped kick off the fast-casual restaurant craze, inspiring many others to enter the space in the shifting dining landscape. The burrito giant exploded in popularity due to its simple, consistent menu made with fresh and quality ingredients.
The company ended the first quarter of 2026 with roughly 4,090 locations, up from 3,781 in the year-ago period. Chipotle operates a vast majority of its restaurants in the U.S., with a growing footprint in Canada.
The fast-casual burrito chain benefited from its successful push into mobile ordering, delivery, and other digital-focused initiatives. And it is currently working on expanding its further beyond North America to try to become a "global iconic brand."
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Chipotle doubled its revenue between 2020 and 2025, highlighted by three years in a row of ~14% YoY revenue growth between 2022 and 2024 after blockbuster 26% YoY expansion during the post-covid lockdown euphoria of 2021.
CMG also grew its GAAP earnings by over 350% between 2020 ($0.25 a share) and 2025 ($1.14 a share).
Its comp sales declined -1.7% in 2025 as its core customers cut back amid lingering inflation, increased fast casual competition, and other headwinds (this also came against four years of between 7% and 19% YoY same-store growth).
Is CMG Stock's Growth Comeback Already Underway?
The burrito chain launched a turnaround plan earlier this year focused on regaining its value proposition, recommitting to the highest level of ingredient standards and portion sizes, and more.
Its five-part "Recipe for Growth" strategy includes “protecting and strengthening the core by driving operational and culinary excellence to deliver exceptional value for our guests.”
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On top of that, it is focused on “accelerating menu innovations… expanding its global reach by scaling with intention through proven, company-owned and partner-operated markets, as well as strategic new regions,” and more.
Chipotle in April launched an updated version of its rewards program to encourage its core customers to return, especially Gen Z and Millennials.
Investors should also keep in mind that CMG still offers a great value proposition compared to the likes of McDonald’s MCD and others, as their prices surge. On top of that, Chipotle sells fresh, relatively healthy meals that are unlikely to go out of style, especially as more people focus on their health.
CMG increased its comparable restaurant sales by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026. Looking ahead, it is projected to expand its same-store sales by 1.1% in 2026, based on Zacks Key Company Metric estimates.
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Overall, it is projected to grow its revenue by 8.4% in 2026 (topping 2025’s 5.4%) and another 11% next year to reach $14.34 billion. Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to dip 3.4% this year (its first decline since 2020), before bouncing back and climbing 20% in 2027 to new highs.
The chart above highlights its strong long-term earnings growth outlook, helping cement its bull case.
Buy CMG for Value, Growth, and Upside in an Overheated Market
Chipotle stock skyrocketed roughly 2,750% in the past 20 years to blow away its industry’s 380%, the S&P 500’s 540%, and McDonald’s 745%. Its 50% drop from its 2024 highs has it trading where it was throughout most of 2021 and 2022.
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CMG has found support near the key range above over the last year, while trading at some of its most oversold RSI levels in the past 20 years.
Its downturn, mixed with its strong earnings outlook, has it trading at its lowest forward earnings multiples in the past 15 years, with 2008/2009 the only time it traded lower.
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Chipotle is trading 70% below its highs, 32% below its 20-year median, and not too far above its industry (when factoring in its massive outperformance) at 27.2X forward 12-month earnings. Its 2024 stock split helps its trade at roughly $33 a share, which might make it more attractive to some.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).