A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Novavax (NVAX). Shares have added about 10.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Novavax due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Novavax, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Q1 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates
Novavax incurred a loss of 6 cents per share in the first quarter of 2026, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 25 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the company had recorded EPS of $2.93, driven by higher sales.
Quarterly revenues totaled $139.5 million, down 79% year over year. This metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $69.5 million.
Quarter in Detail
A key theme this quarter was the shifting composition of revenues as NVAX prioritizes monetizing Matrix-M through partners. Product sales were led by supply activity and direct demand for the company’s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, in a smaller set of markets, while partner-related revenues benefited from licensing activity across multiple counterparties.
Novavax recorded $42.2 million in product sales, down 93% year over year. This includes about $10 million from Nuvaxovid, reflecting sales primarily in Germany for the 2025-2026 season and the continued transition of commercial responsibility in Europe to Sanofi. Supply sales were nearly $33 million, up 136% year over year, supported by higher demand for Matrix-M adjuvant from partners as well as COVID-19 supply to Sanofi.
Last year, Sanofi acquired exclusive rights to market Nuvaxovid globally, except in certain territories where Novavax maintains existing partnership agreements.
Licensing, royalties and other revenues totaled $97.3 million, including $30 million recognized as an upfront payment received from Pfizer in connection with a non-exclusive license agreement for Matrix-M signed earlier this year. The metric increased 116% on a year-over-year basis.
Costs Improve While Strengthening Liquidity Profile
Research and development (R&D) expenses totaled $95.5 million, up 7% year over year, driven by increased costs tied to post-marketing commitments and annual strain change activities. This figure does not include the $28 million of R&D reimbursement from Sanofi.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses declined 40% to $29 million. This downside was primarily due to the transition of lead commercial activities to Sanofi and the elimination of Novavax’s commercial infrastructure.
As of March 31, 2026, Novavax had $795 million in cash and cash equivalents compared with $751 million in the previous quarter. Management also highlighted access to additional non-dilutive capital, including a new $330 million credit facility established in the first quarter, with an initial $50 million draw.
Based on quarter-end liquidity and anticipated partner reimbursements, management said it believes the company can fund operations into 2028 before considering any incremental cash flow from future upfront payments, milestones or royalties.
Financial Guidance
For 2026
With Sanofi leading commercialization in key COVID-19 markets, Novavax continues to emphasize an adjusted revenue framework rather than total revenue guidance. For 2026, the company reiterated an adjusted total revenue outlook of $230 million to $270 million, which does not include any amounts receivable from Sanofi.
Novavax expects full-year combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be in the band of $380-$420 million. This figure excludes $70 million to $80 million in anticipated R&D reimbursements from Sanofi.
Beyond 2026
Novavax reiterated that adjusted combined R&D and SG&A expenses, inclusive of R&D reimbursements, are expected to be approximately $225 million in 2027 (at the midpoint).
For 2028, the company refined its target range to $150-$200 million from its prior goal of below $200 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -9.85% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Novavax has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Novavax has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Novavax belongs to the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Another stock from the same industry, Moderna (MRNA), has gained 6.3% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2026.
Moderna reported revenues of $389 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +260.2%. EPS of -$1.18 for the same period compares with -$2.52 a year ago.
Moderna is expected to post a loss of $2.00 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +6.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +3.9%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Moderna. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).